***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 4.9 10.9 117.5 69.0 54.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.8 9.6 106.0 64.7 51.6 1.6 3.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.7 9.1 11.2 113.8 67.6 54.7 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.4 12.1 105.6 65.0 54.2 3.8 6.4 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.0 8.1 12.9 116.6 68.5 56.9 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.8 7.6 14.4 114.9 68.2 57.3 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.8 4.6 9.8 113.4 67.3 53.5 2.0 3.2 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.0 14.6 13.5 111.3 66.7 55.0 6.3 9.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.7 10.0 13.6 125.5 71.3 59.0 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.2 12.0 14.5 121.5 70.0 58.1 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.4 10.7 12.1 111.0 66.7 54.8 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.0 8.3 11.4 106.1 65.3 53.7 3.2 5.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.1 12.6 110.0 66.8 56.1 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.4 12.7 14.7 120.5 70.0 58.1 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.5 10.7 94.2 61.6 50.2 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.0 11.8 106.0 65.2 54.4 3.0 5.2 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.7 4.6 9.4 114.0 67.8 54.2 2.0 3.1 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.0 11.7 16.8 127.0 71.8 60.0 3.6 6.3 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.3 10.1 105.5 64.8 51.9 2.2 4.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.6 7.6 17.9 114.9 67.8 57.3 2.4 4.5 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.7 8.7 12.3 123.4 70.8 57.3 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.5 4.6 9.8 110.5 67.0 53.1 1.6 2.8 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 4.6 6.5 11.4 111.3 67.3 55.1 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.6 13.1 14.8 124.1 71.1 59.1 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.0 7.2 12.8 118.7 69.1 56.7 1.7 3.6 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 4.4 5.0 11.8 102.5 64.0 54.3 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.8 7.8 12.0 118.8 69.2 55.6 2.6 4.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.4 11.2 96.5 62.2 51.3 3.0 5.3 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 16.1 17.6 124.0 70.9 59.1 4.3 8.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.8 9.9 107.1 65.1 51.8 1.8 3.1 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------