***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 19.7 34.8 80.5 42.5 40.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 28.7 21.5 34.5 83.3 43.7 40.5 17.1 24.3 32.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 40.6 28.9 35.8 79.0 42.2 40.2 23.5 34.3 47.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 26.7 29.6 38.7 72.3 37.9 37.0 26.9 36.8 48.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 40.5 28.4 39.2 75.9 39.5 38.5 24.7 34.6 46.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 33.4 21.0 41.9 75.0 36.5 36.9 19.2 28.2 38.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.9 21.2 34.3 86.0 45.5 41.4 16.3 23.1 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 47.8 52.7 42.3 78.4 39.5 39.3 48.3 59.4 71.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 35.8 25.8 40.1 78.5 41.5 40.1 21.5 30.4 40.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.5 32.4 43.7 80.3 41.7 40.8 27.6 37.5 48.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 19.2 22.5 37.6 76.1 39.4 38.7 18.7 29.1 42.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 23.6 26.6 36.8 76.2 38.5 38.1 23.6 32.9 43.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 25.6 28.2 38.9 74.4 36.4 36.6 26.5 35.2 44.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 52.0 41.6 46.4 83.9 44.6 42.9 33.3 45.7 60.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 17.1 20.6 35.3 68.2 38.2 36.8 17.2 29.1 44.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.0 24.4 37.3 73.4 36.6 36.4 22.7 31.0 40.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 27.6 21.8 33.7 86.3 45.7 41.0 16.8 23.6 31.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 24.8 31.9 49.9 83.7 43.7 42.4 25.9 35.7 47.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 21.0 25.3 35.2 81.5 42.7 40.1 21.2 28.5 37.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 25.8 30.9 55.8 80.9 41.0 40.4 25.9 36.9 49.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 36.5 26.1 37.0 78.0 42.0 39.9 21.0 30.9 42.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 17.2 22.7 35.7 85.9 45.6 40.8 17.6 24.6 32.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 30.2 23.3 37.6 80.9 42.6 40.4 19.5 26.4 34.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 48.4 38.0 44.6 82.4 43.7 42.2 31.3 42.4 54.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 35.4 24.7 40.9 79.0 41.0 39.5 20.3 30.1 42.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 20.9 23.2 37.7 73.4 35.5 35.9 22.3 29.5 37.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 32.8 24.0 39.4 82.4 43.1 40.9 19.0 27.6 37.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 18.0 20.8 36.4 69.2 37.2 36.3 18.4 28.8 41.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 42.3 52.0 53.1 83.7 43.2 42.1 43.7 57.8 73.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 31.3 24.1 34.6 82.3 43.2 40.5 19.6 27.2 35.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------