***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.1 77.0 74.6 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.2 78.5 76.3 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 3.1 3.5 2.2 2.1 77.7 75.9 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 -2.5 -1.9 0.0 2.5 80.9 78.7 -5.9 -4.5 -3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 0.1 0.4 0.2 2.1 77.2 75.2 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 -0.8 -0.5 -2.0 2.0 76.9 74.2 -3.0 -2.0 -1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.2 78.2 76.0 -1.7 -0.5 0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -5.7 -5.4 -2.1 1.7 72.9 70.7 -8.4 -7.2 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 1.2 1.5 0.2 1.9 76.3 74.5 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 0.9 1.1 -1.4 1.8 74.2 72.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 0.7 1.0 -0.6 1.9 75.5 73.5 -1.6 -0.6 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 -0.6 -0.3 -1.3 1.7 73.5 71.5 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 0.4 0.6 -1.4 1.7 74.2 72.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 1.3 1.6 0.1 1.8 74.8 73.1 -1.0 0.0 1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 1.2 1.9 1.2 2.4 82.0 79.7 -1.4 -0.4 0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 1.3 1.5 -1.0 1.9 75.9 73.8 -1.0 0.0 0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.3 79.4 77.1 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 -1.3 -1.1 -1.9 1.7 73.5 71.3 -3.4 -2.5 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.1 78.1 76.0 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 -4.0 -3.8 -3.6 1.3 69.7 66.9 -6.8 -5.5 -4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 76.6 74.6 -1.7 -0.6 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.2 79.4 77.2 -2.0 -0.9 0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.0 76.8 75.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 0.7 0.9 0.0 1.9 75.7 73.9 -1.7 -0.7 0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 0.6 1.0 1.2 2.2 78.4 75.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 0.3 0.5 -1.6 1.7 74.1 71.8 -1.9 -0.9 0.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.1 76.9 74.4 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 -0.5 0.0 0.2 2.3 79.8 77.5 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 -2.0 -1.8 -2.7 1.5 71.1 68.8 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.1 78.0 75.9 -1.6 -0.4 0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------