***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 10.8 11.8 10.4 4.0 83.9 83.0 5.2 7.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 10.1 11.0 10.5 3.9 83.4 82.6 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 10.7 11.3 10.5 3.6 80.2 79.2 4.8 7.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 3.8 4.8 7.3 3.8 81.7 80.5 -1.9 0.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 10.4 10.9 8.4 3.1 77.2 76.0 4.8 7.1 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 9.0 9.4 6.8 2.8 74.8 73.6 4.0 6.1 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 9.7 10.8 10.4 4.0 84.2 83.5 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 49 51 100 -0.2 0.1 6.3 1.9 67.5 66.4 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 10.4 11.0 9.4 3.0 76.2 74.9 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 9.5 9.8 7.2 2.2 69.0 67.9 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 10.1 10.6 8.6 2.6 72.8 71.5 5.2 7.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 9.2 9.6 7.3 2.1 69.8 68.6 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 9.7 10.0 8.0 2.2 70.2 69.3 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 10.5 11.0 9.4 2.8 74.7 73.3 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 9.8 11.2 9.7 4.0 85.4 84.2 4.3 6.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 10.7 11.1 8.0 2.7 74.3 73.2 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 9.3 10.5 10.2 3.9 84.6 83.7 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 8.8 9.3 6.8 2.2 69.5 68.2 4.6 6.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 10.2 11.1 10.5 3.8 82.2 81.3 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 5.1 5.5 5.0 2.2 69.9 68.6 0.9 3.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 10.5 11.1 10.2 3.2 78.2 77.1 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 10.1 11.1 10.3 3.7 83.6 82.6 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 10.3 11.0 10.3 3.5 80.0 79.0 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.5 9.1 2.7 73.3 71.9 5.1 7.4 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 9.9 10.9 9.4 3.9 83.3 82.3 4.1 6.2 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 9.6 9.8 6.6 2.2 71.4 70.3 4.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 10.3 11.5 10.0 3.9 84.1 83.3 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 10.4 11.3 8.2 3.6 80.9 79.6 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 5.3 5.8 6.3 2.3 69.9 68.5 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 9.9 10.8 10.5 3.9 83.1 82.3 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------