***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-01.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 12.1 13.3 11.6 3.6 77.1 73.8 6.7 9.1 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.8 11.4 3.4 75.4 72.4 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 12.0 13.1 12.1 3.6 75.7 72.5 6.7 9.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 5.7 7.1 9.3 4.1 79.4 75.6 0.3 2.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.1 13.3 10.4 3.5 76.2 72.4 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.0 12.0 8.5 3.2 74.8 70.5 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 10.4 11.4 11.2 3.3 75.5 72.4 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 1.7 2.1 8.4 2.6 70.7 67.2 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.6 13.6 11.2 3.5 75.8 71.9 7.4 9.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.7 9.5 2.9 71.5 68.0 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.4 13.3 10.5 3.2 74.1 70.3 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 11.3 12.0 9.4 2.8 72.7 69.0 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 11.9 12.7 9.4 2.8 72.7 69.2 7.6 9.7 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 12.6 13.4 11.1 3.1 72.6 69.3 7.2 9.8 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 11.7 13.4 11.1 4.2 80.9 77.3 5.8 8.3 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.7 13.6 9.8 3.2 74.5 70.8 8.0 10.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.8 11.0 3.1 74.8 71.7 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.7 9.2 3.0 72.4 68.6 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 11.1 12.1 11.7 3.4 75.1 72.2 5.7 8.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 7.0 7.4 6.6 2.5 71.4 67.5 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.2 13.4 11.9 3.5 76.0 72.4 7.2 9.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 11.1 11.9 11.2 3.1 74.4 71.4 5.8 8.3 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 11.6 12.6 11.9 3.3 74.5 71.5 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 12.4 13.2 11.1 3.3 73.6 70.0 7.4 9.8 12.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 11.5 12.7 10.5 3.7 77.7 74.1 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 11.2 12.0 8.3 2.8 74.1 70.4 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 11.5 12.7 11.0 3.5 76.7 73.3 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 12.7 14.4 10.1 4.0 79.1 75.3 6.3 9.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 7.9 8.3 8.3 2.8 71.8 68.1 3.6 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.8 11.5 3.5 75.8 72.8 5.7 8.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------