***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 12.0 11.2 11.0 1.5 63.8 61.5 6.8 9.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 11.8 11.1 10.9 1.5 63.8 61.5 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 12.4 11.5 11.3 1.3 61.4 59.7 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 5.0 4.5 8.8 1.7 64.4 62.0 0.1 2.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.6 9.4 1.2 60.5 58.8 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.2 7.4 0.7 56.5 55.6 7.0 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 11.6 10.9 10.9 1.5 64.4 62.0 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.8 0.7 7.8 0.6 55.5 54.7 -2.1 0.0 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.4 9.8 1.0 58.6 57.4 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.1 8.6 0.7 55.9 55.2 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.5 9.1 0.9 58.1 56.9 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.6 8.7 0.7 56.3 55.6 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.5 7.9 0.7 56.4 55.8 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.3 9.8 0.7 56.3 55.5 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 12.0 11.6 9.7 1.9 65.9 63.4 6.9 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.0 8.6 0.9 58.3 57.2 8.5 10.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 11.3 10.6 10.8 1.5 64.1 61.6 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.6 8.3 0.6 55.6 54.8 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 11.8 11.0 11.1 1.3 62.4 60.4 6.9 9.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.0 5.7 0.5 55.4 54.3 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.5 10.6 1.1 60.3 58.7 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.1 10.9 1.3 62.4 60.1 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.4 11.2 1.1 59.7 58.3 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.4 9.8 0.8 57.2 56.2 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 11.8 11.1 9.5 1.5 63.9 61.6 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.1 7.9 0.7 57.2 56.3 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.2 11.5 10.4 1.5 64.1 61.8 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 12.4 11.8 9.0 1.6 63.5 61.3 7.2 9.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.1 7.4 0.6 55.6 54.7 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.8 11.0 11.0 1.5 63.7 61.5 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------