***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 13.0 12.5 11.8 1.6 64.4 61.5 8.8 10.8 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.3 12.9 11.8 1.6 65.5 62.2 9.2 11.2 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 13.5 12.9 12.1 1.5 63.1 60.7 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 5.6 4.8 9.4 1.5 62.8 60.5 1.0 3.1 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 13.6 12.7 10.1 1.3 61.1 59.3 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.7 8.1 0.9 58.4 56.6 8.1 9.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 12.9 12.7 11.8 1.7 66.4 62.8 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.5 1.8 8.8 1.1 60.1 58.2 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 13.5 12.5 10.6 1.2 60.7 59.0 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.5 9.5 1.1 60.1 58.4 9.3 11.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.4 9.9 1.1 59.8 58.4 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.6 9.6 1.0 59.1 57.6 8.8 10.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.4 8.7 1.0 59.2 57.3 9.7 11.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.9 13.0 10.8 1.2 60.9 58.9 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 12.8 12.2 10.2 1.6 63.4 60.9 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.7 9.4 1.1 59.6 58.0 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.4 11.7 1.6 66.5 62.6 8.6 10.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.4 12.4 9.4 1.2 60.9 58.7 9.1 11.1 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 13.3 12.8 12.0 1.5 64.3 61.4 9.0 11.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.1 6.9 1.3 63.1 59.8 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 13.6 12.8 11.4 1.3 61.6 59.6 9.5 11.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.0 13.1 11.8 1.5 65.1 61.7 9.2 11.3 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.0 12.1 1.4 62.5 60.1 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 13.8 12.9 10.7 1.2 61.0 58.9 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 13.0 12.3 10.2 1.5 63.6 60.9 8.7 10.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.2 8.7 1.0 59.8 57.5 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 13.1 12.7 11.1 1.6 64.9 61.7 9.1 11.0 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 13.2 12.4 9.6 1.4 61.9 59.9 8.4 10.8 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.7 8.5 1.3 61.9 59.3 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.0 12.6 11.8 1.6 65.2 62.1 9.0 10.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------