***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 11.6 12.3 11.2 2.7 79.7 76.9 7.4 9.1 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 11.1 11.9 11.2 2.6 79.6 76.8 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 11.6 12.3 11.5 2.5 77.3 74.7 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 4.4 5.4 8.7 2.8 78.7 75.9 0.4 2.1 3.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 11.5 12.2 9.6 2.3 75.4 72.6 7.8 9.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.6 7.7 1.9 72.9 69.5 7.0 8.5 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 10.8 11.6 11.1 2.6 80.5 77.6 6.7 8.4 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 1.1 1.2 7.8 1.5 69.1 66.4 -1.5 -0.2 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.2 10.3 2.1 74.6 71.8 8.0 9.7 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.6 8.7 1.7 70.1 67.4 8.0 9.7 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 11.7 12.0 9.5 1.9 72.6 69.8 8.0 9.7 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.8 11.0 8.7 1.7 70.5 67.7 7.6 9.1 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 11.3 11.7 8.5 1.7 70.9 68.2 8.3 9.8 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 11.9 12.3 10.3 2.0 72.9 70.2 8.1 9.9 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 11.4 12.3 10.2 2.9 80.1 77.4 6.7 8.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 11.9 12.3 9.0 2.0 73.2 70.3 8.5 10.1 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 10.5 11.4 10.9 2.5 80.4 77.5 6.5 8.1 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.2 11.4 8.4 1.8 70.9 68.0 7.7 9.3 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 11.1 11.9 11.3 2.5 78.3 75.7 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.9 6.1 1.7 71.6 68.3 3.6 5.0 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 11.6 12.2 11.0 2.3 76.0 73.2 7.9 9.6 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 11.2 12.1 11.0 2.4 79.0 76.1 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 11.5 12.1 11.4 2.3 76.2 73.7 7.5 9.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 11.6 11.9 10.2 2.0 72.9 70.2 8.1 9.7 11.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 10.9 11.9 9.9 2.7 79.4 76.5 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 10.9 11.3 7.9 1.7 72.2 69.2 8.0 9.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 11.2 12.1 10.6 2.6 80.1 77.0 7.4 9.0 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 11.7 12.7 9.3 2.7 77.7 74.9 7.1 9.1 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 6.8 7.1 7.6 1.7 71.2 68.2 3.6 5.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 10.9 11.7 11.2 2.6 79.3 76.7 6.9 8.6 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------