***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-23.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 3.2 5.4 6.2 59.2 45.1 32.9 3.8 6.1 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 1.7 3.0 4.6 50.6 40.5 27.3 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.2 6.0 7.0 67.9 48.8 35.9 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.4 12.1 93.6 61.1 50.3 4.2 7.0 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.3 10.8 89.9 58.6 49.5 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.5 10.0 89.1 57.7 51.1 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 1.3 2.4 4.1 45.8 37.5 24.8 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.7 19.7 15.6 120.6 69.5 59.0 7.0 11.8 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.9 11.1 99.9 62.6 51.0 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.3 15.7 124.5 70.8 59.0 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.6 13.7 113.9 67.5 56.9 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.5 10.5 12.6 108.5 65.6 55.7 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.6 12.7 101.8 63.0 55.9 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.2 13.1 105.8 64.8 47.8 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.9 12.3 108.2 67.3 54.5 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.2 11.4 96.9 61.4 53.6 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 1.3 2.2 3.4 40.8 33.7 22.9 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 14.1 15.5 122.2 70.1 57.8 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.1 3.8 5.3 56.8 44.0 30.4 2.6 4.7 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.9 17.1 17.2 119.1 68.9 60.0 4.8 9.3 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.7 8.8 80.5 54.6 43.5 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 1.8 2.9 3.9 44.6 36.0 25.9 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.5 4.7 6.8 69.3 49.9 35.6 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.9 12.4 12.2 106.4 64.9 49.4 4.9 8.3 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.9 8.0 64.0 47.4 37.9 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.7 9.8 87.5 57.2 49.5 3.9 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 2.8 4.8 6.5 58.1 44.1 32.8 3.3 5.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.8 10.3 12.8 109.2 66.7 55.2 2.6 5.6 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.2 24.1 16.2 123.8 70.7 59.4 6.4 12.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 1.8 3.1 5.0 52.7 41.6 28.8 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------