***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.2 10.3 86.7 57.7 45.0 2.7 5.4 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.2 9.1 86.9 57.7 43.1 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.3 10.9 94.6 61.4 47.3 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.6 10.8 12.8 97.6 62.4 46.6 4.7 7.8 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.3 10.8 13.7 107.6 65.5 50.2 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.5 13.9 105.4 64.7 51.0 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.3 9.0 87.9 58.6 44.0 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.2 18.1 13.7 100.4 62.6 49.4 8.0 13.2 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.3 14.1 107.1 65.2 50.5 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.5 14.6 105.0 64.2 50.5 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.0 13.3 108.1 65.5 50.5 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.5 12.5 102.5 63.4 49.4 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.4 9.6 13.9 105.5 64.6 50.1 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.3 14.7 99.3 62.7 48.9 5.0 10.0 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.0 11.4 90.7 61.3 44.4 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.6 8.6 13.7 108.6 65.8 50.7 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.9 9.0 89.0 58.9 43.3 2.0 3.7 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.5 15.4 103.9 63.8 50.6 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.5 9.7 90.4 59.5 45.0 3.6 6.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.0 16.8 94.7 60.3 48.3 3.7 6.6 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.6 12.7 102.1 63.7 49.3 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.7 10.0 94.3 61.1 45.5 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.9 11.0 97.2 62.5 47.7 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.0 13.1 14.1 102.5 63.8 49.7 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.4 12.4 91.7 59.8 46.4 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.2 12.7 98.8 62.2 47.4 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.2 10.8 84.8 56.8 44.9 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.9 12.4 97.2 62.7 46.8 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 15.0 16.0 101.4 62.9 50.0 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.4 9.4 87.3 57.9 43.6 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------