***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 14.6 21.3 36.4 81.0 41.9 39.7 17.0 25.4 35.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 15.9 20.8 31.7 80.9 42.1 40.1 17.1 24.3 32.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 22.7 31.6 38.1 86.0 46.0 43.0 23.5 34.3 47.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 42.5 35.5 45.1 87.6 47.8 44.6 26.9 36.8 48.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 40.2 35.0 46.3 92.8 50.6 47.2 24.7 34.6 46.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 32.8 28.9 46.5 94.7 51.4 48.5 19.2 28.2 38.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 15.1 19.7 30.9 80.1 41.9 39.8 16.3 23.1 30.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 64.5 64.3 53.5 101.3 57.1 51.9 48.3 59.4 71.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 21.6 31.8 47.8 95.0 52.2 48.3 21.5 30.4 40.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 42.4 42.5 54.4 102.0 57.7 52.4 27.6 37.5 48.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 35.0 32.9 48.3 98.8 55.3 50.8 18.7 29.1 42.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 37.8 36.2 47.3 99.3 55.7 51.1 23.6 32.9 43.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 39.4 36.9 49.3 96.9 53.2 50.3 26.5 35.2 44.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 52.6 49.9 54.5 98.9 55.2 50.1 33.3 45.7 60.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 37.0 29.7 41.6 88.0 50.9 46.5 17.2 29.1 44.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 35.4 32.7 46.9 96.1 53.0 49.6 22.7 31.0 40.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 15.1 20.1 29.7 79.6 41.4 39.3 16.8 23.6 31.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 41.1 41.1 57.3 102.6 58.2 52.6 25.9 35.7 47.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.1 26.0 33.8 83.7 44.2 41.7 21.2 28.5 37.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 43.1 39.7 64.5 98.4 54.1 49.7 25.9 36.9 49.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 21.1 29.4 42.6 88.5 47.6 44.6 21.0 30.9 42.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 16.8 22.4 33.2 84.6 45.1 42.4 17.6 24.6 32.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 18.5 25.9 38.5 89.5 48.6 44.9 19.5 26.4 34.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 48.4 45.7 51.1 98.2 54.9 49.9 31.3 42.4 54.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 19.4 25.7 42.7 82.4 42.7 40.6 20.3 30.1 42.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.0 29.5 45.2 92.6 50.0 46.8 22.3 29.5 37.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 16.9 22.8 38.4 80.4 40.9 38.9 19.0 27.6 37.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 35.3 29.7 44.2 91.2 51.3 47.3 18.4 28.8 41.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 65.1 65.3 60.2 102.6 58.0 52.4 43.7 57.8 73.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 18.8 23.9 33.2 81.7 42.8 40.6 19.6 27.2 35.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------