***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 -1.5 -0.6 0.7 58.6 57.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -1.9 -1.2 0.3 53.0 52.3 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 0.8 0.9 -0.8 0.7 58.0 56.6 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 -5.2 -4.6 -2.7 0.9 61.1 59.9 -7.6 -5.8 -4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -1.2 -1.9 1.1 63.0 61.4 -3.8 -2.3 -0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 -1.3 -1.1 -3.1 2.0 70.9 68.9 -4.5 -3.0 -1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 0.3 53.6 52.7 -3.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -6.3 -6.7 -3.3 1.3 64.1 62.5 -10.4 -8.3 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 -1.1 0.0 -1.2 1.4 66.1 64.2 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 -1.1 -0.4 -2.7 1.3 63.7 62.2 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 46 54 100 -0.4 -0.4 -2.0 1.4 66.1 64.1 -3.2 -1.7 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 -1.2 -1.4 -2.3 1.4 65.6 63.8 -4.6 -3.0 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 -0.4 -0.4 -2.2 1.7 68.3 66.3 -4.0 -2.3 -0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 -0.9 -0.4 -1.7 1.0 61.1 59.8 -2.6 -1.2 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 -1.2 -0.4 -1.5 1.1 63.9 62.6 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 0.2 0.2 -2.1 1.5 67.5 65.5 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 -1.2 -1.9 -1.7 0.0 50.0 49.7 -3.5 -1.9 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 -3.3 -2.8 -3.5 1.2 61.7 60.6 -5.2 -3.7 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.6 -1.1 0.4 55.1 54.1 -3.8 -2.1 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -6.2 -5.8 -5.3 0.9 59.8 59.0 -8.8 -6.8 -5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 -1.1 -0.4 -0.7 1.0 62.0 60.5 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -2.0 -1.5 0.2 52.5 51.8 -3.8 -2.3 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -1.7 -1.5 -1.0 0.8 59.3 57.7 -3.6 -2.2 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 -1.4 -0.9 -1.8 1.1 61.6 60.3 -3.1 -1.8 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -1.4 -0.6 -1.3 1.1 63.3 61.5 -3.7 -1.9 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 -0.2 -0.4 -2.4 1.6 68.5 66.4 -3.7 -2.1 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -0.5 -1.0 0.9 60.8 59.1 -3.9 -1.8 0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 -2.7 -2.1 -2.1 0.9 61.7 60.5 -4.5 -3.1 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 -2.8 -3.2 -4.1 1.3 63.0 61.7 -6.5 -4.6 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 0.4 55.2 54.1 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------