***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 -0.2 0.4 -1.7 29.3 34.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 0.1 -1.6 29.2 33.7 -0.6 0.7 2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 0.8 1.1 0.2 -1.6 29.0 34.3 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -5.5 -5.2 -1.7 -1.5 30.3 36.5 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 -1.7 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 30.0 36.0 -1.4 -0.3 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 -2.6 -2.8 -3.7 -2.1 24.4 34.2 -2.2 -1.1 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 -1.2 -0.9 0.1 -1.6 29.5 33.7 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -7.7 -7.9 -3.3 -2.0 26.5 35.2 -7.3 -5.9 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 28.8 34.9 -0.4 0.9 2.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 -0.6 -0.7 -2.6 -2.0 27.2 34.9 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 -1.1 -1.0 -2.0 -1.7 28.2 35.6 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -1.8 27.4 35.7 -1.8 -0.7 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 -1.2 -1.2 -2.8 -1.9 26.4 34.8 -0.8 0.3 1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -0.6 -0.6 -1.3 -2.0 25.8 33.1 0.0 1.2 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 -0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 28.9 36.2 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 -2.3 -1.8 27.7 35.5 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 -1.6 30.1 33.9 -0.3 1.0 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -2.2 26.2 34.2 -2.3 -1.1 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 0.1 -1.6 29.0 33.9 -0.7 0.8 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -5.1 -5.4 -5.2 -2.3 25.6 33.7 -4.8 -3.5 -2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -0.2 -1.7 29.0 34.5 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 0.1 -1.6 30.5 34.5 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 -1.5 -1.3 0.0 -1.6 28.7 34.3 -1.0 0.4 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 -1.6 -1.9 26.8 33.9 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.7 28.3 34.1 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 -1.1 -1.2 -2.6 -1.9 26.0 34.5 -0.8 0.3 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -1.7 -1.5 -0.3 -1.8 28.5 33.8 -1.0 0.6 2.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -2.2 -2.1 -1.5 -1.6 29.4 36.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -3.9 -4.2 -4.2 -2.3 24.8 33.3 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 -1.2 -0.9 0.2 -1.7 29.0 33.8 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------