***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 -0.8 -0.1 -0.6 40.3 42.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.6 39.0 41.4 -1.8 -0.6 0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 0.1 0.9 -0.3 -0.6 39.6 42.5 0.5 1.6 2.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -6.2 -5.1 -2.4 -0.6 40.7 43.9 -5.7 -4.4 -3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -2.5 -1.7 -2.0 -0.5 40.6 43.9 -2.2 -1.2 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 -3.1 -2.2 -3.7 -0.4 43.7 46.2 -2.8 -1.9 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -1.8 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6 39.4 41.6 -1.6 -0.4 0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -8.9 -7.7 -3.4 -0.6 40.8 44.0 -8.3 -7.0 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -1.5 -0.7 -1.4 -0.5 40.9 44.0 -1.2 -0.1 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 -1.6 -0.8 -2.8 -0.6 40.0 43.3 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 -1.9 -1.0 -2.3 -0.5 41.1 44.4 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 -3.1 -2.1 -2.6 -0.5 41.7 44.8 -2.6 -1.6 -0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 -2.2 -1.2 -2.8 -0.4 42.7 45.5 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.7 -0.7 37.9 41.5 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 -1.5 -0.8 -1.8 -0.5 41.1 44.3 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 -2.6 -0.5 42.1 45.2 -0.8 0.2 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -1.8 -1.3 -0.6 -0.8 37.0 39.9 -1.6 -0.4 0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 -3.7 -2.9 -3.6 -0.7 39.1 42.4 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -2.0 -1.2 -0.4 -0.6 39.4 41.9 -1.7 -0.5 0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -7.3 -6.1 -5.2 -0.7 39.3 42.3 -6.7 -5.3 -4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 -1.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 40.1 43.1 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -2.1 -1.6 -0.6 -0.7 37.0 40.0 -1.9 -0.8 0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 -2.1 -1.4 -0.5 -0.5 40.4 42.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 -1.9 -1.1 -1.9 -0.6 39.1 42.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 -1.9 -1.1 -1.5 -0.5 41.5 43.8 -1.6 -0.6 0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -2.1 -1.1 -2.7 -0.4 43.4 46.0 -1.7 -0.8 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -2.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 41.2 43.2 -1.6 -0.4 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -3.0 -2.3 -2.1 -0.6 40.4 43.9 -2.7 -1.7 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 -5.0 -3.9 -4.2 -0.7 39.2 42.3 -4.4 -3.2 -2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 -1.7 -0.9 -0.3 -0.6 39.6 42.0 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------