***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 4.0 5.7 -0.8 42.0 43.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.5 5.0 5.2 -1.2 37.5 39.2 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.9 5.8 -1.1 38.8 40.8 5.1 7.3 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 1.5 -0.9 3.1 -1.1 39.2 40.5 -1.8 0.5 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.2 4.5 -0.9 41.6 43.0 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.7 5.8 3.4 -0.6 44.0 45.4 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.0 4.6 5.1 -1.2 37.8 39.5 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -4.5 -3.2 3.5 -1.1 39.1 41.8 -4.0 -1.8 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.6 5.5 -0.8 41.7 43.3 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.0 6.3 4.2 -1.1 38.9 41.5 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.8 6.8 4.7 -0.8 42.6 44.2 5.5 7.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.4 6.3 4.3 -0.8 42.1 44.0 5.0 7.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.7 7.2 4.7 -0.4 46.1 47.2 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 4.6 5.7 4.9 -1.8 33.6 37.0 5.6 8.0 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.4 5.5 4.5 -0.9 41.3 42.2 4.5 6.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.0 7.3 4.7 -0.5 44.8 45.9 5.7 8.0 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 2.8 4.2 4.5 -1.5 34.6 36.6 4.0 6.1 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.2 5.3 3.5 -1.4 35.8 39.4 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.4 4.8 5.4 -1.3 37.3 39.2 4.2 6.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.4 1.6 -1.4 35.0 38.9 1.1 3.3 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.9 6.5 5.8 -0.9 41.5 42.9 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.1 4.4 4.7 -1.6 33.5 35.9 4.3 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.7 5.1 5.6 -1.4 36.5 38.8 4.6 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.5 5.9 4.9 -1.5 35.9 39.0 5.5 7.7 9.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.6 4.5 -0.7 42.5 43.6 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.3 6.8 3.9 -0.4 45.8 46.8 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.8 5.2 -0.7 42.3 43.5 4.6 6.8 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 5.9 4.0 -1.0 40.3 41.6 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.5 1.5 2.8 -1.4 35.7 39.6 1.1 3.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.0 5.5 -1.1 39.0 40.7 4.2 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------