***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 4.7 6.9 -1.8 33.9 37.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 5.0 6.1 6.7 -1.8 33.9 36.8 6.0 8.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.5 7.1 7.0 -2.0 33.0 36.5 7.1 9.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -0.2 0.5 4.8 -2.0 32.6 36.8 0.5 3.0 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.7 7.3 5.4 -2.0 32.8 37.0 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.3 7.0 4.1 -1.7 34.2 38.4 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.8 5.9 6.7 -1.7 34.6 37.2 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.1 -0.8 4.6 -1.8 33.7 37.9 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.9 6.1 -2.0 33.1 37.2 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.3 7.7 5.2 -1.9 33.3 37.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.7 5.3 -2.0 32.6 37.0 7.8 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.4 5.2 -1.9 32.7 37.3 7.4 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.5 7.9 4.8 -1.9 32.9 37.5 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 6.5 7.3 6.2 -2.1 32.0 35.7 7.5 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.3 5.9 4.8 -2.0 32.6 37.0 5.9 8.6 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.2 4.9 -2.0 32.3 36.9 8.3 10.6 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 4.3 5.5 6.4 -1.7 33.8 36.6 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 7.7 4.8 -1.8 33.8 37.5 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 5.0 6.1 6.9 -1.9 33.3 36.3 6.1 8.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.0 2.9 -1.4 36.3 39.7 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.0 7.5 6.6 -1.9 33.1 37.0 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 4.7 6.0 6.6 -1.9 32.4 35.7 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 5.8 6.7 7.0 -2.0 32.4 35.9 6.8 9.3 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.2 7.7 6.1 -2.0 32.5 36.3 7.8 10.2 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.8 6.3 5.3 -1.8 33.1 36.7 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.0 4.7 -1.6 34.6 39.0 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.3 6.9 6.1 -1.8 33.8 37.0 6.8 9.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.5 6.3 4.9 -2.0 32.5 37.0 6.4 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.8 4.2 4.0 -1.6 35.0 38.6 4.0 6.0 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.5 6.2 6.9 -1.8 34.0 36.9 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------