***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 8.4 8.7 -2.7 24.9 30.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 8.8 8.8 8.6 -2.7 25.0 29.6 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 9.0 9.0 8.9 -2.7 25.9 30.7 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 0.7 0.7 7.1 -2.5 28.6 33.3 1.3 3.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.2 9.2 7.5 -2.6 28.0 32.7 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.0 8.0 5.7 -2.5 28.0 32.6 8.5 10.3 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 8.3 8.3 8.5 -2.7 24.1 28.9 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -1.3 -1.4 6.0 -2.8 26.2 30.7 -0.6 1.0 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 9.0 9.0 8.0 -2.7 27.4 32.1 9.8 11.7 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 9.0 8.9 6.8 -2.8 26.7 31.3 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 9.0 8.9 7.2 -2.6 27.6 32.4 9.6 11.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 8.4 8.3 6.8 -2.8 26.3 31.1 9.1 10.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 9.4 9.2 6.3 -2.8 25.8 30.9 10.0 11.8 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 9.1 9.2 7.7 -3.0 25.9 30.3 10.2 12.1 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 8.2 8.3 7.4 -2.3 29.6 34.2 8.7 10.8 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 9.6 9.6 6.8 -2.7 27.1 32.0 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 8.0 8.1 8.4 -2.6 25.1 29.2 9.0 10.8 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 8.7 8.6 6.0 -3.1 25.4 29.9 9.6 11.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 8.6 8.6 8.8 -2.7 25.6 30.2 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 4.1 4.0 3.6 -3.1 24.0 28.1 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 9.2 9.2 8.5 -2.7 26.8 31.6 10.0 11.8 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 8.7 8.8 8.6 -2.6 26.2 30.1 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 9.2 9.2 8.8 -2.7 26.2 30.6 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 9.3 9.2 7.6 -3.0 25.9 30.4 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 8.4 8.3 7.3 -2.7 25.7 30.8 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 9.2 9.0 6.1 -2.7 25.4 30.5 9.8 11.5 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 8.6 8.4 7.9 -2.8 24.1 29.5 9.5 11.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.4 8.4 7.4 -2.5 29.3 33.9 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 3.9 3.8 5.0 -3.1 24.6 29.1 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 8.6 8.5 8.7 -2.7 24.9 29.7 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------