***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 37.1 55.1 125.7 72.5 66.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 34.8 34.5 49.3 117.7 68.7 62.9 17.2 24.5 33.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 48.9 54.4 57.2 129.3 74.5 68.0 23.6 33.9 46.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 52.6 57.8 66.7 133.3 76.3 69.0 27.8 37.5 48.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 49.3 57.1 66.8 137.5 78.4 71.4 24.9 34.3 45.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 42.4 51.4 74.6 136.4 79.9 72.1 19.4 28.1 38.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 33.4 31.7 47.9 114.5 66.7 61.6 16.8 23.5 31.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 73.1 82.0 72.4 135.3 78.7 71.4 48.4 58.9 70.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 43.9 51.2 65.1 134.3 77.7 70.6 21.8 30.6 40.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 51.2 59.8 70.7 134.7 78.6 71.4 27.7 37.1 48.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 46.5 55.9 65.0 137.0 78.7 71.1 19.2 29.4 41.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 46.0 55.4 66.2 137.2 79.3 71.2 22.1 31.7 42.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 46.8 55.1 70.6 136.1 79.3 71.5 25.1 33.8 43.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 62.8 69.1 67.6 127.9 74.4 67.7 32.6 45.0 59.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 50.5 57.4 65.1 133.9 76.3 67.5 16.2 28.0 43.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 43.1 49.5 67.4 136.9 78.9 71.1 22.8 30.7 39.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 26.6 31.4 45.6 112.9 65.8 60.9 16.7 23.6 31.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 48.8 56.5 75.5 131.0 77.3 70.2 25.6 35.0 46.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 38.0 38.9 51.8 120.9 70.4 64.2 20.2 27.7 36.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 51.2 56.5 87.1 125.3 74.0 67.9 25.4 35.9 48.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 44.9 52.0 60.7 133.0 76.6 69.8 21.0 30.5 41.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 35.1 34.0 48.6 116.0 67.6 62.2 17.7 24.8 33.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 34.9 37.3 56.2 124.6 72.4 65.8 18.3 25.2 33.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 57.3 65.8 68.1 131.9 76.8 69.8 30.6 41.7 54.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 43.4 48.2 64.3 128.7 74.5 68.6 22.1 30.9 41.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 39.5 46.2 70.4 136.4 79.0 71.0 22.0 29.1 37.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 38.3 40.8 59.1 123.8 71.9 66.2 19.7 27.7 36.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 47.0 54.0 66.3 135.1 77.1 68.8 18.6 28.7 41.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 75.1 83.8 79.7 128.2 75.7 69.2 42.7 56.7 71.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 36.8 37.6 51.3 120.4 70.1 64.1 19.5 26.7 35.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------