***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2013.-24.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 6.6 14.0 114.9 68.2 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 8.0 7.8 13.0 120.7 69.9 60.0 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 12.3 12.6 15.1 126.3 71.6 62.2 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 11.8 12.8 18.8 130.6 72.8 63.6 4.1 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 12.5 13.7 17.9 130.8 72.8 64.8 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 6.7 11.0 18.2 130.5 72.7 66.0 3.2 5.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.6 12.0 110.1 66.5 56.6 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.5 21.4 18.3 128.0 72.1 63.5 7.3 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.3 11.1 16.2 122.5 70.2 61.2 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.2 12.8 17.7 126.8 71.6 62.6 3.3 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 10.6 11.5 17.1 126.6 71.6 63.3 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 12.0 13.0 17.0 125.5 71.3 62.9 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 9.1 12.9 16.9 118.5 69.1 62.3 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 13.2 14.4 17.2 127.1 71.8 62.4 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 11.6 13.9 20.7 145.1 76.5 66.8 2.2 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 7.1 11.0 17.6 126.3 71.5 64.4 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.5 9.1 12.1 115.1 68.4 57.9 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 8.8 14.3 18.3 125.7 71.3 62.1 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.6 14.0 125.0 71.2 61.3 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 11.5 17.5 20.2 118.5 69.2 62.4 5.1 9.5 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 10.9 11.1 15.6 122.7 70.4 61.7 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 9.5 9.5 13.4 122.1 70.5 59.6 2.2 4.7 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.9 15.1 126.3 71.6 61.7 2.6 4.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.6 15.9 17.2 129.4 72.5 62.7 5.3 8.9 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.3 9.5 16.3 117.1 68.3 60.6 2.3 5.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.1 12.1 18.8 131.9 73.3 66.2 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.4 14.1 107.4 64.9 56.9 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 12.3 14.2 19.3 136.7 74.4 64.8 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 15.7 23.8 18.9 122.9 70.3 61.8 7.3 13.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 8.8 8.4 13.3 119.5 69.6 59.9 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------