***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 11.7 11.6 106.4 64.4 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.3 10.8 99.1 61.4 50.9 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.3 11.9 109.4 65.7 55.9 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 14.5 14.2 114.1 67.4 55.3 4.4 8.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.7 14.5 14.4 120.8 69.7 59.7 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 13.4 14.6 18.8 135.5 74.5 63.0 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.8 9.7 11.0 98.0 61.4 50.7 3.7 6.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.6 19.8 16.7 123.4 70.4 60.7 7.3 11.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.2 11.9 14.1 116.7 68.3 58.9 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.5 13.9 15.8 119.8 69.2 59.9 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.9 11.2 14.5 126.2 71.5 61.3 3.9 6.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 14.0 14.7 15.4 128.1 72.1 61.8 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 13.3 13.9 17.2 132.5 73.6 63.3 4.8 7.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.0 14.4 14.2 107.8 64.6 55.2 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 16.4 14.6 118.3 69.2 55.1 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.1 14.0 15.6 128.8 72.3 62.2 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.9 10.3 96.3 60.6 50.1 4.4 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.9 10.9 16.6 111.8 66.2 58.2 4.7 7.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.4 10.9 100.5 61.8 51.5 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 11.6 20.5 109.1 65.1 56.6 4.7 7.9 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.9 12.8 114.6 67.5 58.0 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.0 10.3 10.4 95.6 59.6 49.2 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.5 8.5 11.5 102.8 62.7 52.9 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 9.7 11.8 14.4 110.4 65.8 57.4 5.1 8.1 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.7 12.5 13.7 109.8 65.6 56.2 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.4 14.3 16.6 127.0 71.7 60.9 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.0 12.7 106.0 64.1 54.3 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.4 13.0 14.7 120.5 69.8 56.8 3.7 7.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 15.4 17.9 108.9 64.8 56.9 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.1 11.1 102.2 62.8 52.4 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------