***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 11.4 15.6 131.7 73.2 61.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.8 8.7 13.7 122.5 70.3 58.8 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 12.8 14.0 15.9 129.9 72.6 61.5 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 13.8 16.1 18.4 141.2 75.8 65.4 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.3 14.9 18.6 141.7 75.9 66.3 2.7 5.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 9.8 12.0 20.6 141.5 76.1 68.7 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.0 7.4 13.4 122.8 70.4 58.5 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 20.4 23.4 19.5 134.3 74.1 65.7 6.3 11.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.7 11.4 18.3 138.5 75.2 65.3 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 11.5 13.1 19.3 134.0 73.9 65.1 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 10.5 12.7 17.6 137.8 74.9 66.2 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 9.2 11.4 17.9 141.6 76.1 67.3 2.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 12.5 15.9 19.7 145.9 77.3 69.6 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 19.3 20.5 19.2 129.3 72.5 62.5 4.9 9.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 9.8 11.1 16.1 132.3 73.3 62.4 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 10.2 12.5 18.5 142.0 76.1 68.1 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.3 6.2 12.5 122.2 70.2 57.9 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.1 13.4 21.0 132.1 73.4 64.4 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.9 10.3 14.4 123.7 70.7 59.5 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 10.9 11.6 23.9 127.0 71.7 63.8 2.3 5.2 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 11.0 12.5 17.0 136.9 74.7 63.7 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.3 13.4 123.5 70.6 59.3 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 10.3 11.1 15.8 126.5 71.6 60.4 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.9 17.7 19.1 133.3 73.8 63.5 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.4 12.1 18.5 138.4 75.1 64.8 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 9.3 11.5 19.3 147.0 77.3 68.8 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 9.7 11.0 17.2 134.0 73.8 63.1 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 11.0 13.2 17.6 138.3 75.0 64.9 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 18.0 19.6 22.1 130.3 72.8 64.4 5.3 9.8 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.4 9.5 14.4 124.0 70.8 59.5 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------