***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 4.7 14.0 155.8 78.8 66.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.0 5.5 11.7 130.6 73.0 62.2 1.9 3.1 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.3 12.4 14.3 156.0 78.8 65.5 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 10.0 12.5 15.3 150.3 77.6 63.2 3.2 5.6 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 8.6 11.4 16.0 161.1 80.0 65.7 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 7.7 8.9 17.0 138.3 74.9 64.1 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 4.6 4.9 11.5 130.4 73.0 62.5 1.9 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 15.6 18.9 17.8 160.6 80.0 67.3 7.3 10.5 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 10.8 13.9 16.4 165.9 81.0 66.7 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 13.2 17.4 17.8 163.9 80.6 67.3 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.0 16.7 15.7 163.7 80.6 66.0 2.7 5.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 9.5 12.5 15.8 158.9 79.6 65.8 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 8.3 10.2 16.8 151.2 78.3 65.4 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 12.5 15.5 17.1 150.4 77.8 65.4 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.1 9.4 13.8 139.3 75.2 58.5 1.6 3.6 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 8.0 10.1 15.7 154.2 78.8 64.7 2.6 4.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.2 4.3 10.7 119.7 70.1 60.1 1.7 2.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 11.0 14.6 19.6 158.8 79.5 67.3 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.3 7.3 12.4 136.8 74.5 62.7 2.2 3.7 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 8.6 10.4 22.5 151.6 77.9 67.6 3.4 5.4 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.4 11.4 15.3 164.3 80.6 66.4 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.4 4.8 11.5 124.0 71.2 60.9 1.6 2.7 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 6.4 7.7 13.7 145.8 76.7 63.4 2.2 3.7 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 13.0 17.2 17.4 158.4 79.4 66.3 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 6.8 9.1 15.9 154.4 78.5 66.2 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 5.2 6.3 15.6 140.5 75.6 63.4 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 7.8 10.1 15.1 153.9 78.4 66.6 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 6.8 8.5 14.7 146.6 76.9 61.5 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 16.7 21.9 20.8 155.2 78.8 67.2 4.5 8.5 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 4.9 5.6 12.5 138.6 75.0 63.4 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------