***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 9.9 12.0 10.2 2.0 68.0 64.5 6.9 9.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 9.0 11.3 10.6 2.4 70.7 67.0 6.0 8.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 10.2 12.0 10.6 2.1 67.4 64.1 7.1 9.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 3.7 5.7 7.4 2.2 68.4 64.4 0.5 3.0 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.5 11.7 8.4 1.6 63.4 60.3 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.7 5.8 0.6 55.5 53.6 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 8.6 10.8 10.4 2.2 69.8 66.1 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.1 1.4 6.6 1.1 59.9 57.0 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.9 12.3 9.5 1.8 65.3 61.7 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.8 11.4 7.6 1.2 59.7 57.1 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.9 8.6 1.4 62.2 59.3 7.8 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.2 11.1 7.7 1.5 63.0 59.5 7.4 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.8 11.0 7.3 0.8 57.0 55.2 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 10.8 12.7 10.0 2.2 67.5 63.9 7.5 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 11.1 12.6 9.5 2.8 74.4 69.3 5.9 8.6 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.3 12.0 7.7 1.2 60.5 58.0 8.3 10.6 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 46 54 100 9.8 10.6 10.4 2.4 71.8 67.8 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.6 11.3 7.4 1.3 60.5 57.6 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 9.2 11.6 10.8 2.4 70.5 66.9 6.1 8.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.0 4.6 0.6 55.9 53.7 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 10.5 12.0 10.1 1.8 65.1 61.8 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 9.1 11.8 10.8 2.5 72.5 68.4 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 9.9 12.2 11.0 2.4 70.1 66.4 6.8 9.3 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.9 12.3 9.6 1.8 64.9 61.4 7.8 10.2 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 9.4 10.9 8.6 1.7 65.2 62.0 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.3 10.9 6.4 1.1 60.6 57.9 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 9.7 11.2 9.4 1.7 65.5 62.4 6.8 9.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 10.3 12.8 8.2 2.3 69.1 64.8 6.4 9.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.1 6.5 1.2 59.8 56.8 4.0 6.0 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 9.0 11.2 10.5 2.3 69.9 66.3 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------