***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.9 11.7 11.1 1.9 67.5 63.1 6.8 9.2 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.7 11.0 1.9 68.0 63.5 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.3 11.5 1.9 66.9 62.8 7.6 10.0 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 5.0 4.7 8.8 1.9 67.4 63.1 0.1 2.4 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.1 9.5 1.6 64.4 60.8 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.6 7.4 1.2 61.1 57.8 6.9 9.1 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.5 10.9 1.9 67.9 63.3 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 0.6 1.3 7.9 1.2 61.4 58.5 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.1 10.0 1.6 64.4 60.9 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.8 8.8 1.4 62.0 59.0 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.2 12.0 9.2 1.4 62.6 59.6 7.9 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.3 8.8 1.3 62.4 59.5 7.4 9.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.9 7.9 1.1 60.8 58.2 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.1 12.6 10.3 1.8 65.3 61.8 8.0 10.4 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 12.3 12.3 9.6 2.1 69.9 64.8 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.4 8.6 1.3 62.1 59.1 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 11.3 11.3 10.8 1.8 67.8 63.1 6.9 9.0 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.4 8.6 1.4 61.9 59.0 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.9 11.2 1.9 67.7 63.4 7.0 9.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.3 5.6 0.9 58.3 56.3 3.1 5.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.2 10.8 1.7 65.5 61.7 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 12.0 11.9 10.9 1.8 67.2 62.9 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 12.6 12.5 11.5 1.9 67.2 63.0 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.4 10.1 1.6 64.3 60.9 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.8 9.5 1.9 67.5 63.0 7.2 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.8 7.8 1.3 63.5 60.2 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.0 10.3 1.8 67.1 62.6 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.3 9.0 1.9 67.1 62.7 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.5 7.6 1.2 60.7 58.3 2.9 5.1 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.7 11.0 1.9 67.9 63.6 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------