***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 11.3 11.9 10.5 1.9 74.9 70.0 7.6 9.3 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 11.0 11.8 10.7 2.1 77.2 72.1 7.3 9.0 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 11.4 12.1 10.9 1.8 73.8 69.0 8.0 9.6 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 4.4 5.0 7.8 1.9 74.4 69.0 0.6 2.3 4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.3 11.7 8.8 1.5 69.3 64.7 8.1 9.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.3 10.1 6.7 1.2 65.4 61.3 7.2 8.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 10.7 11.4 10.5 2.0 77.0 71.7 7.0 8.6 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 0.4 1.0 7.1 1.1 64.3 60.4 -1.4 -0.1 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.4 12.0 9.7 1.6 71.4 66.4 8.3 9.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.5 11.4 8.1 1.2 65.2 61.2 8.3 9.9 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.5 11.7 8.9 1.4 68.2 63.8 8.3 10.0 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 10.9 11.0 8.2 1.3 68.2 63.7 7.8 9.4 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.5 11.3 7.7 1.1 64.4 61.0 8.6 10.0 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 12.0 12.6 10.0 1.8 72.5 67.6 8.4 10.2 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 11.5 12.7 9.5 2.5 80.8 74.6 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 10.8 12.0 8.2 1.3 67.6 63.4 8.8 10.4 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 10.4 11.3 10.5 2.0 78.1 72.6 6.8 8.4 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.1 7.8 1.2 65.3 61.2 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 11.1 11.9 10.9 2.1 76.8 71.7 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.1 5.0 0.7 59.9 56.9 3.8 5.2 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 10.3 12.0 10.3 1.6 71.5 66.7 8.2 9.8 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 11.2 12.2 10.7 2.0 77.9 72.7 7.3 9.1 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 11.6 12.4 11.1 2.0 76.2 71.1 7.8 9.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.4 11.9 9.7 1.6 70.0 65.3 8.4 10.0 11.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.8 11.3 9.0 1.8 73.0 68.2 7.3 9.0 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 11.1 11.2 7.2 1.3 68.5 64.0 8.3 9.7 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 11.0 11.6 9.8 1.8 73.7 68.9 7.6 9.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 11.7 12.5 8.5 2.0 75.1 69.4 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.6 6.9 1.1 64.1 60.3 3.8 5.3 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.9 11.6 10.7 2.0 76.5 71.6 7.2 8.9 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------