***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.02.2019.-24.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 1.9 1.7 2.4 24.0 20.5 16.8 3.0 5.2 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 1.0 0.7 1.6 17.8 16.9 14.3 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 2.4 2.3 2.8 27.7 23.0 18.7 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 2.8 3.2 3.9 31.4 26.6 20.9 4.1 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 2.8 2.8 3.9 32.7 26.1 22.6 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.9 3.0 4.8 39.2 31.5 27.6 3.2 5.7 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 90 10 0 100 1.2 0.8 1.4 16.2 15.6 13.6 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 6.2 6.5 5.4 38.9 29.5 26.2 7.3 12.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 2.3 2.1 4.0 34.7 26.9 23.0 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.2 3.2 5.7 42.4 31.8 27.9 3.3 6.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 2.5 2.4 4.4 34.6 27.5 24.2 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 2.9 2.8 4.2 33.2 26.0 23.0 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 4.1 4.1 5.6 39.9 30.9 28.1 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 3.1 2.7 4.5 33.2 24.9 20.7 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.6 2.2 3.7 32.3 32.4 22.2 2.2 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 2.7 2.6 4.3 33.4 26.6 23.7 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 1.0 0.5 1.3 14.4 15.3 12.8 2.1 4.6 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.4 3.4 5.9 43.3 30.4 27.1 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 1.4 1.2 1.9 19.6 18.2 14.9 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.6 4.3 6.1 39.7 29.5 26.6 5.1 9.5 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 1.9 1.8 3.4 31.4 25.1 20.8 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 1.1 0.7 1.4 15.3 15.4 12.3 2.2 4.7 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 1.6 1.5 2.3 22.9 20.5 16.3 2.6 4.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 4.2 4.3 4.6 37.3 27.5 23.4 5.3 8.9 13.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 1.5 1.2 3.2 27.5 22.1 19.0 2.3 5.0 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 2.8 2.7 3.9 30.6 24.7 22.2 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 1.9 1.7 2.4 23.3 19.7 16.8 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 1.6 2.2 4.1 34.2 30.6 22.9 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 6.6 6.5 6.0 42.0 29.8 26.8 7.3 13.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 1.2 0.9 1.8 19.6 17.4 14.7 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------