***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.8 2.8 4.5 40.7 32.8 29.0 2.9 6.0 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 3.5 3.4 3.4 33.2 27.8 24.3 4.2 7.4 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.0 4.0 4.8 41.1 31.8 28.4 4.3 7.7 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.4 4.8 6.0 45.3 34.8 30.5 4.4 8.4 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.3 7.1 54.2 38.9 34.3 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.9 8.3 65.1 45.3 39.5 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.1 3.4 34.3 28.5 24.8 3.7 6.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.9 8.1 7.4 50.8 36.5 31.5 7.3 11.9 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.4 5.3 7.1 53.2 37.9 33.6 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.2 6.3 7.7 54.9 39.3 34.2 5.1 8.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.5 6.9 51.6 37.3 32.8 3.9 6.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.4 5.0 6.5 48.4 35.0 30.2 4.7 8.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.6 5.7 7.2 54.2 38.6 32.9 4.8 7.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.4 7.2 50.4 36.1 32.2 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 2.4 2.8 3.9 32.2 28.3 22.9 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.9 5.0 7.2 54.7 39.1 33.9 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 3.5 3.7 3.4 34.3 28.8 25.0 4.4 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.8 8.7 58.6 40.4 35.5 4.7 7.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.6 3.3 3.7 34.7 28.1 25.0 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.3 4.9 9.1 49.2 33.4 29.8 4.7 7.9 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.6 4.9 6.2 48.6 35.8 32.0 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 3.9 3.8 3.4 33.6 27.6 24.1 4.7 8.0 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.0 2.9 4.4 38.8 29.8 26.7 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 5.9 7.4 53.8 38.2 33.7 5.1 8.1 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.8 3.8 6.4 49.2 36.0 32.4 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 3.2 3.7 6.3 47.1 31.4 27.7 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.1 3.3 5.3 44.9 34.3 30.6 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 3.2 3.9 5.4 42.7 34.0 28.6 3.7 7.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.4 7.7 9.0 56.1 38.5 34.1 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 3.3 3.2 3.6 34.5 28.1 24.8 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------