***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.6 10.3 76.4 51.2 41.5 2.7 5.3 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.8 9.4 77.0 52.1 42.3 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.0 10.3 77.6 52.1 41.8 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 4.3 10.2 13.5 92.5 58.8 46.8 4.7 8.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.1 13.5 93.1 59.0 47.5 2.7 5.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.5 6.8 13.6 94.6 59.1 47.3 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.1 9.1 76.4 52.1 42.6 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.2 15.6 14.8 96.2 60.3 48.0 6.3 11.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.3 13.5 88.9 57.0 46.5 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.7 14.5 92.0 58.4 47.1 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.9 13.6 97.4 60.8 48.4 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.1 13.5 97.6 60.9 48.2 2.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.3 14.4 98.6 60.8 48.2 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.6 10.1 13.0 75.7 51.0 42.4 4.9 9.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.2 6.3 12.1 85.6 57.0 44.2 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.0 8.0 13.8 98.9 61.1 48.0 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.9 9.9 82.4 54.9 44.3 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.0 14.9 88.2 56.5 45.3 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.6 9.5 75.5 51.1 41.6 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.4 18.9 93.9 59.2 47.3 2.3 5.2 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.5 12.1 84.6 55.0 44.4 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.5 10.5 82.7 54.6 44.5 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.2 9.9 73.6 50.1 41.4 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.1 12.9 81.7 53.9 43.5 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.2 12.5 83.3 54.4 44.3 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.2 6.5 14.2 98.0 61.2 48.5 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.1 11.1 78.0 52.1 42.6 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.5 7.7 13.1 93.7 59.7 46.6 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.6 11.8 15.8 88.2 56.3 45.4 5.3 9.8 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.2 9.3 75.2 51.3 41.5 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------