***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.6 4.0 12.9 107.8 65.4 52.3 1.6 2.7 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.9 4.6 11.8 109.0 66.2 52.1 1.9 3.1 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.3 12.4 108.0 65.6 52.6 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.5 14.0 103.1 64.2 50.1 3.2 5.6 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.7 13.7 102.6 63.8 50.7 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.8 15.3 109.0 66.1 53.3 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.9 4.2 11.4 107.1 65.5 51.2 1.9 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.2 14.5 15.6 112.4 67.1 54.3 7.3 10.5 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.0 8.2 14.2 105.0 64.7 51.8 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 11.1 15.6 110.2 66.4 53.9 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.0 9.3 13.6 104.7 64.5 51.3 2.7 5.7 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 8.2 13.9 109.1 66.0 52.7 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.8 14.7 106.3 65.1 53.2 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.1 15.3 105.8 65.1 53.3 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.2 12.8 99.9 64.1 48.7 1.6 3.6 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.6 13.6 102.1 63.6 51.1 2.6 4.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.9 11.2 106.4 65.5 49.8 1.7 2.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.5 9.5 16.2 111.2 66.8 55.9 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.8 12.0 110.0 66.5 52.7 2.2 3.7 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.9 18.9 110.3 66.5 55.5 3.4 5.4 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.6 7.0 13.3 105.4 64.8 51.4 2.4 4.4 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.7 4.3 12.2 110.0 66.6 51.0 1.6 2.7 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.1 5.8 12.6 109.7 66.3 53.1 2.2 3.7 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.8 14.6 108.5 66.0 54.3 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.9 14.4 105.9 64.8 51.4 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.8 4.6 14.2 106.9 65.4 53.7 1.5 2.8 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.8 13.7 107.5 65.3 52.2 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.8 13.5 103.1 64.5 49.6 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.3 14.9 17.0 111.3 66.8 56.2 4.5 8.5 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.9 4.5 12.1 110.1 66.5 52.7 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------