***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 -2.8 -2.4 -1.0 -1.9 29.3 36.4 -1.9 0.0 1.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 -2.7 -2.8 -1.2 -2.1 25.6 33.7 -1.9 -0.1 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 -0.4 0.0 -0.9 -1.9 28.7 36.1 0.4 2.1 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -6.8 -6.6 -4.0 -2.1 27.7 34.5 -6.0 -4.1 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -2.8 -2.5 -3.4 -1.8 30.3 37.1 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -3.4 -2.8 -5.0 -1.2 37.0 41.8 -3.1 -1.7 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 -2.4 -2.3 -1.1 -2.1 26.0 33.8 -1.6 0.2 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -9.6 -8.9 -5.1 -1.5 33.9 39.6 -9.1 -7.1 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 -1.7 -1.2 -2.8 -1.7 31.5 37.8 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 -1.6 -1.1 -4.4 -1.6 32.8 38.3 -1.1 0.3 1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 -1.8 -1.3 -3.9 -1.5 33.1 39.1 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -3.0 -2.5 -4.2 -1.3 35.8 41.5 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 0.2 -1.3 -4.4 -1.2 37.1 42.7 -1.6 -0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -1.3 -0.9 -3.1 -1.7 31.2 37.7 -0.7 0.8 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 -1.5 -1.3 -2.8 -1.8 28.7 35.0 -0.9 0.6 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -1.2 -0.7 -4.2 -1.4 34.4 40.3 -0.8 0.6 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 -2.3 24.3 32.1 -1.3 0.3 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -3.7 -3.1 -5.0 -1.5 33.9 39.4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 -2.5 -2.5 -1.2 -2.1 26.1 34.3 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -7.2 -6.5 -6.4 -1.4 35.0 40.9 -6.7 -4.8 -3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -1.9 -1.7 -1.8 29.8 36.7 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 -2.3 -2.5 -1.5 -2.2 24.9 32.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 -2.7 -2.5 -1.4 -2.0 27.2 35.1 -1.9 -0.2 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 -1.9 -1.5 -3.3 -1.7 31.6 37.8 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 -2.3 -2.0 -2.5 -2.0 28.1 35.3 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 0.2 -1.3 -4.4 -1.0 38.9 44.0 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -2.6 -2.2 -1.5 -1.9 29.3 36.3 -1.8 0.2 2.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 -3.0 -2.7 -3.6 -1.9 29.0 35.4 -2.4 -1.0 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -5.4 -4.6 -5.4 -1.4 34.5 40.1 -4.8 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 -2.4 -2.2 -1.1 -2.0 26.9 34.7 -1.5 0.4 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------