***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 4.4 4.0 4.5 -3.1 22.1 25.6 5.6 7.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 3.1 2.3 4.5 -3.3 19.7 23.8 4.5 6.8 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 3.8 3.0 4.6 -3.6 19.6 23.6 5.2 7.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 -3.6 -4.3 0.7 -4.1 16.1 19.2 -1.5 0.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 3.7 2.7 2.9 -3.7 18.0 22.1 5.3 7.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 3.2 2.9 2.1 -2.8 22.8 27.2 4.5 6.8 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.9 2.3 4.5 -3.0 21.9 25.8 4.1 6.4 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -5.0 -5.8 1.7 -3.6 18.0 22.3 -3.6 -1.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 4.2 3.3 3.9 -3.6 18.6 22.7 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 4.3 3.2 2.4 -3.9 17.3 21.7 5.8 8.1 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 4.2 3.5 3.6 -3.6 19.3 23.6 5.7 8.1 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.9 3.2 2.7 -3.3 19.9 24.4 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 4.4 4.3 4.0 -2.7 24.2 28.8 5.7 8.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 4.3 2.8 3.5 -4.2 15.9 20.5 5.8 8.2 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 3.1 2.9 3.3 -3.3 20.5 23.5 4.7 6.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 4.5 4.1 3.3 -3.1 21.2 25.8 6.0 8.3 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 2.5 1.7 4.0 -3.5 17.5 22.0 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 4.0 2.6 1.8 -4.0 16.5 21.5 5.3 7.6 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 2.9 2.0 4.5 -3.5 19.2 23.5 4.4 6.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 0.3 -0.5 0.8 -3.1 20.1 25.2 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 4.1 3.1 4.5 -3.7 18.3 22.3 5.6 7.9 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 2.5 1.2 4.1 -3.8 15.1 20.2 4.4 6.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 3.5 2.5 4.6 -3.5 19.4 24.0 4.8 7.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 4.3 3.0 3.6 -4.0 16.8 21.5 5.7 8.0 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 3.2 2.7 3.4 -3.3 20.8 24.2 4.6 6.8 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 4.3 4.2 2.8 -2.4 24.9 29.4 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.8 3.4 4.3 -2.9 23.1 26.5 4.9 7.2 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 3.2 2.5 2.0 -3.8 17.8 21.2 5.1 7.5 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 0.2 -1.0 1.5 -3.7 17.6 22.9 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 3.2 2.4 4.6 -3.2 21.1 24.9 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------