***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.1 6.4 6.0 -2.4 28.8 35.7 7.1 9.6 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 5.2 5.3 6.0 -2.6 26.6 34.7 6.3 8.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 6.5 6.8 6.4 -2.4 28.9 36.0 7.4 9.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -0.7 -1.2 2.2 -3.4 21.7 29.4 0.7 3.2 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 6.6 6.8 4.6 -2.5 27.8 34.7 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 6.5 7.3 3.7 -1.8 33.6 38.9 7.2 9.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 5.0 5.2 6.0 -2.5 26.8 34.9 6.1 8.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.2 -0.8 4.0 -1.8 34.2 39.4 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.7 5.7 -2.3 29.8 36.3 8.2 10.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.4 8.0 4.6 -2.1 32.4 38.1 8.0 10.4 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 7.3 7.7 5.1 -2.3 30.2 36.4 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 7.3 7.8 4.8 -1.8 33.4 38.8 7.7 9.8 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 7.6 8.5 5.1 -1.7 34.1 39.4 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 6.8 7.4 5.8 -2.3 30.7 37.5 7.8 10.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 4.5 3.9 3.8 -3.3 21.4 29.7 6.1 8.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 7.8 8.3 4.6 -2.2 30.2 36.4 8.7 11.0 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 4.5 4.5 5.7 -2.6 25.2 34.0 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.1 4.5 -1.8 34.8 40.2 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 5.4 5.5 6.1 -2.6 27.3 35.3 6.4 8.8 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.3 4.6 3.1 -1.1 39.9 44.1 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.9 7.2 6.2 -2.4 29.1 35.9 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 5.2 5.1 5.9 -2.7 25.2 34.2 6.3 8.7 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 6.1 6.5 6.4 -2.4 29.0 36.5 7.2 9.6 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 7.3 8.0 5.8 -2.2 31.7 38.1 8.2 10.5 12.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 5.6 5.7 4.5 -2.6 26.9 34.1 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.6 4.4 -1.3 36.6 41.5 8.1 10.1 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 6.1 6.5 5.6 -2.3 29.2 35.9 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 5.0 4.4 3.1 -3.4 22.0 29.9 6.7 9.7 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 4.7 4.2 -1.4 37.5 42.3 4.2 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 5.4 5.7 6.1 -2.5 27.9 35.5 6.4 8.7 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------