***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 5.2 5.2 7.0 -2.8 22.8 31.5 6.9 9.3 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 6.1 5.8 6.9 -2.9 22.1 30.7 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 6.4 6.5 7.5 -2.7 25.0 33.4 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 -1.3 -1.2 4.6 -2.8 24.2 32.3 0.1 2.3 4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 6.5 7.0 5.9 -2.5 27.4 34.7 7.9 10.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 6.1 6.7 4.7 -1.9 31.9 38.3 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 5.7 5.4 6.9 -2.9 21.5 29.9 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -3.0 -2.4 5.1 -1.9 31.4 37.7 -2.2 -0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 6.5 7.2 6.6 -2.3 28.7 35.9 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 6.8 7.7 5.8 -2.1 30.9 37.3 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 6.9 7.4 6.1 -2.2 29.6 36.4 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.5 7.2 5.9 -1.9 31.1 37.7 7.4 9.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 7.5 8.1 5.3 -1.8 31.7 38.4 8.3 10.5 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 6.9 7.5 6.7 -2.3 29.5 36.2 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 5.9 5.6 5.2 -2.9 23.2 32.2 7.2 9.6 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 7.3 8.0 5.7 -2.1 29.8 36.7 8.5 10.7 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 5.7 5.3 6.7 -3.0 21.0 29.0 7.1 9.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 6.4 7.4 5.6 -1.9 32.3 38.4 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 6.0 5.8 7.2 -2.8 23.6 32.1 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.3 3.1 3.3 -1.7 32.6 38.8 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 6.7 6.9 7.1 -2.6 26.4 34.3 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 6.1 5.8 6.9 -2.9 22.1 30.2 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 6.7 6.8 7.6 -2.6 26.0 34.2 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 6.7 7.4 6.7 -2.3 29.8 36.5 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 5.9 5.9 5.4 -2.8 23.3 31.4 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 7.3 7.9 5.2 -1.6 33.0 39.5 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 5.9 5.9 6.3 -2.8 22.6 30.9 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 5.9 6.0 5.0 -2.8 24.8 33.2 7.4 9.9 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.8 4.9 -1.8 32.6 38.7 2.8 5.1 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 6.0 5.7 6.9 -2.9 22.5 31.2 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------