***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.1 10.7 -0.3 46.3 46.2 9.6 11.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.4 10.6 -0.4 45.4 45.5 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.8 11.2 -0.3 47.2 47.0 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 0.9 2.9 7.9 -0.7 43.4 44.4 1.6 3.7 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.5 11.7 9.2 -0.3 46.8 46.7 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.6 10.7 7.7 0.1 50.5 49.7 8.9 10.7 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 9.4 11.1 10.6 -0.4 45.5 45.1 9.8 11.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -1.0 1.1 8.1 0.0 49.7 48.5 -0.5 1.2 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.5 11.7 9.9 -0.2 48.4 47.7 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 9.5 11.9 8.9 0.0 49.6 48.4 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 9.3 11.7 9.2 -0.1 48.6 48.0 9.9 11.9 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.9 11.2 8.9 -0.1 49.3 48.6 9.3 11.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.0 12.2 8.3 0.0 50.4 49.4 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.4 10.1 -0.1 49.2 48.3 10.6 12.5 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 8.7 10.3 8.5 -0.8 42.2 44.0 9.1 11.2 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.2 12.3 8.8 -0.1 48.9 48.4 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 9.0 10.7 10.5 -0.4 45.2 45.2 9.4 11.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.6 11.9 8.8 0.0 50.4 48.8 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.7 11.5 10.9 -0.3 46.5 46.4 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.2 6.0 0.0 50.0 48.4 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.8 10.6 -0.2 47.8 47.4 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.9 11.6 10.6 -0.4 45.7 46.0 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.2 11.2 -0.1 48.5 47.9 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.1 12.2 10.1 -0.1 49.4 48.3 10.4 12.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 9.3 11.0 9.0 -0.4 45.5 45.7 9.6 11.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.9 8.0 0.1 50.9 50.3 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.3 10.0 -0.3 46.3 46.0 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.7 10.7 8.2 -0.7 43.7 44.8 9.3 11.5 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.0 7.8 0.0 50.2 48.7 5.0 7.0 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.6 11.2 10.6 -0.4 45.6 45.6 9.9 11.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------