***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 7.1 6.5 7.1 -2.2 21.6 27.7 7.8 9.5 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 6.9 6.0 7.0 -2.3 19.5 25.9 7.6 9.2 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 7.5 6.9 7.4 -2.2 21.5 27.9 8.2 9.9 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -0.1 -1.3 3.9 -2.7 17.6 25.1 0.7 2.5 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 7.4 6.9 5.7 -2.3 21.3 28.4 8.3 10.0 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 6.8 6.9 4.6 -1.6 27.3 33.3 7.5 9.0 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 6.6 5.7 7.0 -2.2 20.0 26.1 7.2 8.9 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -1.8 -2.0 4.7 -1.8 24.8 31.0 -1.2 0.1 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 7.6 7.4 6.5 -2.1 22.8 29.5 8.5 10.2 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 7.7 7.5 5.4 -2.0 23.8 30.2 8.5 10.1 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 7.7 7.5 6.0 -2.0 23.5 30.2 8.5 10.2 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.3 5.6 -1.8 25.3 31.7 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 8.2 8.3 5.7 -1.6 27.5 33.2 8.8 10.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 7.7 7.4 6.5 -2.2 22.2 28.7 8.6 10.4 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 6.6 5.3 5.2 -2.6 19.1 26.8 7.2 9.1 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 8.3 8.1 5.6 -1.9 24.4 31.1 9.0 10.6 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 6.0 5.2 6.7 -2.4 17.5 24.1 7.0 8.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 7.3 7.3 5.2 -1.9 24.8 31.0 8.2 9.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 6.8 6.0 7.2 -2.3 20.3 26.9 7.5 9.3 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.3 3.4 3.3 -1.5 27.8 33.0 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 7.6 7.1 7.1 -2.2 21.6 28.2 8.4 10.1 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 6.5 5.6 6.9 -2.4 17.2 24.3 7.6 9.4 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 7.4 6.9 7.5 -2.2 22.2 28.8 8.1 9.9 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 7.9 7.5 6.5 -2.1 23.0 29.6 8.6 10.2 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 6.9 6.1 5.6 -2.3 20.7 27.3 7.6 9.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 8.0 8.2 5.1 -1.3 29.6 35.4 8.5 9.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 7.2 6.7 6.6 -2.1 22.0 28.0 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 6.7 5.5 4.6 -2.6 18.7 26.4 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.3 3.3 4.6 -1.7 26.1 31.9 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 6.9 6.1 7.1 -2.2 20.6 26.9 7.5 9.1 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------