***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9.8 13.3 18.0 167.1 81.2 69.3 2.8 5.2 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 8.0 13.8 17.9 212.8 88.5 73.2 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 13.2 19.6 19.2 184.5 84.1 72.8 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 11.9 18.2 30.3 217.5 87.8 78.7 4.2 6.7 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 11.2 14.5 20.4 156.6 79.0 71.2 3.2 6.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.4 17.8 21.1 174.6 82.4 74.5 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 8.5 15.0 17.1 202.3 87.2 71.0 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 18.8 22.1 21.6 144.4 76.5 70.0 6.8 11.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 9.9 12.9 19.7 160.2 79.8 71.8 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 10.6 13.2 21.5 149.7 77.6 70.8 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 10.6 13.8 20.9 155.9 78.8 70.9 3.1 5.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 12.5 15.7 20.4 155.4 78.8 71.0 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.8 20.8 23.9 175.5 82.8 75.0 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 13.8 20.3 22.9 177.6 83.1 75.1 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 12.9 28.1 33.2 279.0 92.3 81.4 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 11.4 15.5 21.9 167.3 81.1 73.1 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 9.0 17.8 17.3 213.9 88.5 70.6 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 11.8 14.8 21.5 147.7 77.2 71.3 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 8.0 13.7 18.7 211.1 88.1 74.2 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 16.2 17.4 23.0 130.9 73.0 68.2 4.9 8.8 14.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 10.9 14.9 19.1 163.2 80.3 71.1 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 8.5 16.1 18.8 219.6 89.0 71.6 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 7.6 12.2 19.5 198.1 86.4 74.3 2.2 4.0 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 14.3 19.1 21.0 167.5 81.2 73.3 4.6 7.9 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 11.0 15.0 20.5 161.7 80.1 69.4 3.0 5.7 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 12.3 17.3 22.0 180.7 83.6 75.8 3.5 6.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 9.0 12.1 18.3 161.4 80.1 68.2 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 13.2 23.6 29.5 229.3 88.2 78.6 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 21.9 25.6 22.0 145.5 76.7 71.3 6.6 11.8 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 9.1 16.0 17.9 199.8 86.7 72.9 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------