***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.7 11.5 101.6 63.2 50.7 3.1 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.8 10.3 103.9 64.7 48.2 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.9 11.0 98.6 62.0 48.8 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.8 12.1 13.5 100.4 63.1 50.5 3.5 7.5 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.3 12.7 97.2 61.6 51.3 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.7 12.4 95.7 60.4 51.5 3.8 6.5 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.7 10.1 102.3 64.4 47.4 3.7 6.9 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 6.5 15.1 13.2 95.4 60.7 50.0 6.1 11.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.4 12.1 93.3 60.1 49.4 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.4 12.4 91.3 58.9 48.8 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.2 12.2 91.8 58.6 48.8 3.2 5.7 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.4 12.9 98.8 61.8 51.4 4.2 7.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.0 11.9 85.2 56.0 46.7 4.1 6.8 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.5 13.4 93.9 60.0 49.4 4.9 9.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.4 15.2 13.5 109.2 66.8 49.8 3.9 8.2 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.4 12.0 89.8 57.8 48.1 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.4 10.5 105.4 65.6 47.9 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.3 13.0 90.1 58.2 48.6 4.5 7.5 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 12.5 10.6 104.0 64.4 49.1 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.4 17.0 91.1 58.8 48.3 4.1 7.3 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.0 12.0 97.2 61.5 49.3 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.1 12.5 11.2 106.9 66.0 49.0 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.6 11.3 102.8 63.6 50.9 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.6 12.4 92.9 59.4 48.3 5.0 8.3 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.9 10.7 13.4 98.3 61.7 50.8 3.2 6.9 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.1 10.5 14.1 101.6 62.8 53.6 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.4 12.1 98.7 62.0 50.5 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.2 10.9 13.2 104.8 64.9 51.9 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.5 13.0 14.5 89.7 57.9 48.4 6.0 10.4 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.3 10.3 101.5 63.6 48.2 3.4 7.1 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------