***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 8.8 10.6 17.7 138.7 75.2 66.6 2.6 4.8 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 7.1 7.4 14.0 123.3 70.7 63.3 1.9 3.8 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 10.7 12.1 16.9 130.4 72.7 64.1 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 12.1 14.4 19.5 141.6 76.0 65.4 3.5 6.5 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 7.0 13.9 19.3 138.8 75.1 65.2 2.4 5.3 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.1 9.2 17.4 121.4 69.9 60.0 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.7 13.9 127.3 71.9 63.6 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.0 22.0 19.8 130.8 72.9 61.8 4.7 9.8 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 5.6 10.4 20.3 137.2 74.8 64.5 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 7.2 12.6 20.6 130.5 72.8 62.4 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 11.2 12.6 17.8 130.9 72.9 62.6 2.6 5.6 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.6 10.4 17.6 130.6 72.8 61.9 3.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.9 12.2 17.7 122.8 70.4 61.0 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 10.1 14.4 18.6 113.1 66.8 59.5 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 8.6 10.5 18.0 139.8 75.3 62.7 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.1 10.7 17.0 123.7 70.7 61.1 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.7 5.4 12.8 118.2 69.2 61.6 1.5 2.8 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.0 11.3 21.1 124.8 71.0 60.6 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 7.7 8.1 14.3 121.0 69.9 62.9 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.9 11.7 25.7 129.9 72.6 60.6 2.3 5.1 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 9.4 11.8 19.3 140.8 75.8 66.1 2.2 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.1 5.6 13.2 112.4 67.1 60.6 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 5.2 8.2 15.1 117.4 68.6 61.9 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.0 14.4 19.1 122.8 70.3 61.0 2.9 6.5 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 9.5 11.8 20.5 144.1 76.8 68.6 2.3 4.6 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.3 8.1 16.6 119.1 69.2 59.6 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 8.9 10.7 18.8 140.2 75.7 67.4 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 9.9 11.6 18.1 136.6 74.5 63.1 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.1 17.0 22.0 122.9 70.3 59.5 3.7 8.2 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.8 14.9 127.3 71.9 64.0 1.9 3.7 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------