***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 4.4 4.3 14.8 121.1 70.0 57.5 1.4 2.5 3.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.4 5.9 12.5 118.3 69.4 58.1 2.0 3.4 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.0 9.3 13.4 113.3 67.8 55.6 2.7 5.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.3 10.1 16.6 120.2 70.1 59.2 3.3 5.8 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.5 7.5 15.5 116.0 68.5 57.7 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.5 15.8 111.2 66.2 56.5 2.7 4.7 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.7 5.0 12.9 123.4 71.0 59.4 1.8 2.9 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.5 15.0 15.9 111.4 66.6 57.6 7.6 10.9 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.1 9.7 15.5 114.8 68.1 57.3 2.8 5.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.2 12.0 16.2 112.5 67.0 57.8 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.3 14.5 110.5 66.6 57.1 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.3 9.3 14.5 111.0 66.6 56.9 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.9 7.3 16.0 111.1 66.2 56.5 2.8 4.8 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.9 15.8 108.1 65.8 55.8 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.4 8.3 16.0 121.1 70.7 58.6 1.8 3.9 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.9 7.4 15.3 111.4 66.8 57.2 2.8 4.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.0 5.0 12.4 120.7 70.3 60.2 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.5 17.2 114.6 67.7 57.8 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.1 6.8 12.5 115.2 68.3 57.3 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.7 8.4 20.8 115.2 67.8 58.1 3.5 5.6 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.7 14.5 113.9 68.0 56.2 2.1 4.2 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.1 5.7 12.8 119.3 69.7 59.4 1.8 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.5 6.0 12.8 109.8 66.7 56.1 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.0 11.7 15.1 109.8 66.4 55.2 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.4 16.5 119.4 69.6 58.3 2.2 4.1 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.9 15.1 108.5 65.4 54.9 2.3 3.9 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.6 15.7 122.5 70.5 58.5 2.2 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.0 7.2 16.0 119.2 69.9 59.0 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.1 17.6 18.2 114.9 67.8 57.7 6.3 10.7 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.1 5.5 13.1 118.9 69.5 57.7 1.9 3.3 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------