***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 36.4 40.0 62.0 131.7 76.1 69.1 18.9 25.7 33.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 35.0 41.3 54.7 136.0 77.2 68.3 16.2 23.7 32.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 51.8 55.9 60.6 130.5 75.6 69.0 22.6 33.2 45.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 53.1 61.7 79.9 145.4 81.6 74.4 26.7 36.2 46.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 47.3 50.1 67.8 127.3 74.4 68.2 23.7 32.9 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 43.5 45.2 66.8 124.4 73.6 68.3 19.4 28.3 38.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 32.7 38.0 54.1 136.1 77.1 67.5 16.5 23.0 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 73.4 74.7 70.5 121.3 71.8 66.3 47.9 58.6 69.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 43.6 45.7 67.6 126.2 74.2 68.0 21.4 29.7 39.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 51.2 52.1 70.7 121.5 72.1 66.4 27.2 36.4 47.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 44.8 46.8 65.4 122.4 71.9 66.1 19.4 29.4 41.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 46.6 48.7 65.4 124.1 73.1 67.3 22.0 31.3 42.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 47.2 49.1 69.6 123.2 72.9 67.8 24.0 33.1 43.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 64.4 65.9 70.7 121.5 71.9 66.4 31.5 44.4 59.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 51.1 72.1 80.7 160.2 84.4 76.0 16.0 27.4 42.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 42.7 43.8 66.3 122.8 72.1 66.8 22.2 30.4 39.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 32.2 37.7 53.0 135.3 76.8 67.6 16.3 22.9 30.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 48.8 48.9 72.7 119.4 71.2 65.7 24.9 34.1 44.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 38.6 43.6 56.1 134.4 76.9 68.6 18.9 26.7 35.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 48.6 49.3 86.4 117.2 69.5 63.6 25.1 34.9 46.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 46.9 49.6 64.9 128.5 75.0 69.0 20.4 30.0 41.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 34.3 39.6 55.9 135.0 77.1 67.9 17.0 24.0 32.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 35.6 39.1 58.6 129.4 75.1 68.1 17.3 24.4 32.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 60.3 61.1 67.6 122.5 72.5 66.8 29.7 41.2 54.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 45.3 49.7 70.9 130.5 76.0 69.7 21.1 30.2 40.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 40.7 43.4 67.8 125.8 74.4 68.5 22.3 29.6 37.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 39.4 43.5 64.9 130.2 75.6 68.7 19.2 27.2 36.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 46.9 57.2 76.8 147.3 81.0 73.7 18.3 28.1 40.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 76.2 76.1 76.6 118.0 70.4 64.8 42.3 55.9 71.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 37.3 42.2 56.2 134.4 76.7 68.1 18.4 25.9 34.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------