***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 9999.0 -3.0 -1.4 -2.1 13.2 19.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 -2.3 -2.6 -1.4 -1.8 19.1 24.4 -1.5 -0.3 0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 -0.1 -0.8 -1.5 -2.0 14.6 21.1 0.8 2.0 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 -6.5 -6.6 -3.1 -1.7 19.4 23.4 -5.3 -4.0 -2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 -2.7 -2.9 -2.9 -1.8 18.1 23.1 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -2.7 -2.5 -4.1 -1.0 32.4 34.5 -2.5 -1.6 -0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 -2.1 -2.4 -1.5 -1.8 18.7 24.3 -1.2 -0.1 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -8.7 -8.6 -4.0 -1.4 25.0 29.1 -8.0 -6.7 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 -1.7 -2.1 -2.6 -1.9 16.3 22.6 -0.9 0.2 1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 -1.4 -1.5 -3.5 -1.5 23.1 27.8 -0.8 0.1 1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -1.7 18.6 23.4 -1.1 -0.2 0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 -3.0 -3.2 -3.5 -1.8 18.8 23.7 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 -2.1 -2.1 -3.6 -1.5 22.5 26.3 -1.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 -1.1 -1.3 -2.5 -1.6 21.6 26.1 -0.5 0.5 1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 -1.9 -2.4 -3.0 -2.1 14.3 18.7 -1.0 0.1 1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 -1.2 -1.4 -3.4 -1.7 19.2 23.4 -0.5 0.5 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 -1.9 -1.8 -1.3 -1.4 26.1 30.2 -1.2 0.0 1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 -3.3 -3.1 -3.9 -1.1 30.1 33.5 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 -2.2 -2.6 -1.5 -1.8 18.0 23.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -6.5 -5.6 -4.9 -0.5 40.5 42.1 -6.3 -4.9 -3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 -2.1 -2.8 -1.9 -2.0 13.9 20.6 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 -2.0 -2.0 -1.2 -1.4 26.2 30.2 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -1.6 -1.8 17.1 22.6 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 -1.8 -1.9 -2.7 -1.6 21.4 26.3 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 -1.8 16.9 22.3 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 -1.8 -1.9 -3.3 -1.4 24.8 28.5 -1.4 -0.4 0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 -2.3 -2.9 -2.0 -2.0 15.1 21.4 -1.3 -0.1 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 -3.2 -3.5 -3.0 -1.9 17.3 21.3 -2.4 -1.4 -0.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -3.8 -4.2 -0.7 36.4 38.6 -4.1 -2.8 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 -2.1 -2.6 -1.5 -2.0 16.0 22.0 -1.1 0.1 1.2 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------