***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 9999.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.4 13.2 18.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 -2.9 -3.4 -2.7 -2.7 19.6 24.7 -2.0 -0.5 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 -1.1 -2.0 -3.1 -3.2 14.3 19.7 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -7.1 -7.2 -4.2 -2.3 21.9 25.5 -5.7 -3.8 -2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 -3.2 -3.4 -4.2 -2.5 20.5 24.3 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -2.8 -5.0 -1.4 32.4 35.0 -2.8 -1.5 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 -2.6 -3.1 -2.6 -2.7 19.5 24.8 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -8.9 -9.1 -5.3 -2.4 22.5 25.9 -8.0 -6.4 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 -2.4 -2.9 -4.1 -2.9 18.1 22.6 -1.3 0.1 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 -2.2 -2.4 -4.9 -2.5 21.6 25.5 -1.3 0.0 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 -2.6 -3.0 -4.5 -2.7 19.1 22.8 -1.6 -0.1 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -3.6 -4.1 -4.8 -2.9 18.1 21.8 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 -2.7 -2.8 -4.8 -2.4 22.1 25.7 -1.8 -0.3 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 -1.9 -2.2 -3.7 -2.5 22.3 26.2 -1.1 0.4 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -4.2 -2.6 19.3 23.5 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 -1.9 -2.0 -4.5 -2.4 21.3 24.8 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 -2.7 -2.7 -2.2 -2.1 27.1 31.1 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 -4.1 -4.1 -5.2 -2.2 26.0 29.5 -3.4 -2.1 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 -2.8 -3.4 -2.7 -2.7 18.7 23.7 -1.8 -0.3 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -7.9 -7.4 -6.1 -1.5 32.6 35.2 -7.4 -5.3 -3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 -2.8 -3.5 -3.3 -3.0 16.6 21.5 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 -2.8 -2.7 -2.1 -2.0 27.8 31.4 -2.2 -0.7 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 -2.9 -3.4 -2.9 -2.7 18.7 23.4 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 -2.8 -3.1 -4.2 -2.7 20.3 24.7 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 -2.7 -3.3 -4.0 -2.8 17.3 22.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 -2.4 -2.6 -4.5 -2.3 22.8 26.7 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 -2.8 -3.8 -3.6 -3.2 14.8 20.0 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 -3.9 -4.1 -4.1 -2.4 21.3 24.9 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -5.0 -4.6 -5.4 -1.7 30.5 33.2 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 -2.8 -3.5 -2.9 -3.0 16.1 21.5 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------