***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 99 1 0 100 9999.0 1.6 3.2 -3.8 15.9 16.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 1.7 1.4 2.4 -4.3 14.9 15.4 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 2.6 2.3 3.4 -3.9 15.7 16.4 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 -2.7 -2.3 2.1 -2.7 24.8 25.9 -1.0 1.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 4.1 4.3 3.2 -2.7 24.5 25.5 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.0 5.5 2.9 -1.2 37.2 38.1 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 1.3 1.2 2.5 -4.0 15.9 16.5 4.2 6.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -3.0 2.8 -1.5 33.9 35.0 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 4.3 4.6 3.9 -2.7 24.2 25.1 6.1 8.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.3 5.9 3.3 -1.9 31.0 32.0 6.2 8.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 4.7 5.0 3.3 -2.5 25.8 26.9 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.6 5.0 3.1 -2.1 28.3 29.6 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.2 5.7 3.6 -1.8 30.6 31.7 6.1 8.4 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 4.3 4.3 3.5 -3.0 22.4 23.7 6.1 8.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 3.3 3.3 2.5 -3.4 21.2 22.5 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 5.0 5.4 3.4 -2.3 27.2 28.3 6.3 8.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 90 10 0 100 2.0 2.6 2.9 -3.2 22.0 22.6 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 6.2 3.1 -1.4 35.6 36.4 5.9 8.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 1.5 1.1 2.6 -4.3 14.2 14.8 4.6 7.1 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 4.5 3.6 2.1 -0.2 47.3 47.5 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 3.5 3.8 3.9 -3.2 20.5 21.4 5.9 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 2.0 2.7 3.1 -3.3 21.1 21.7 4.7 7.1 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 99 1 0 100 2.0 1.7 3.1 -4.1 15.0 15.8 5.1 7.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 4.5 4.8 3.6 -2.6 25.2 26.3 6.0 8.3 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 3.0 3.6 3.1 -2.7 24.0 24.7 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.0 5.5 3.0 -1.7 31.0 32.2 5.8 8.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 2.8 3.1 3.2 -3.2 20.0 20.6 5.2 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 3.4 3.5 2.4 -3.2 22.0 23.4 5.4 7.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 5.1 3.2 2.9 -0.8 41.8 42.3 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 1.5 0.9 2.5 -4.5 13.1 13.7 4.5 6.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------