***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 4.9 5.5 -3.5 18.8 22.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 5.2 5.2 5.8 -2.9 23.6 27.3 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 6.0 5.7 5.8 -3.4 20.5 24.5 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -0.9 -1.7 3.6 -3.8 18.3 21.0 0.9 3.4 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 6.2 5.6 4.1 -3.7 19.4 22.6 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 5.9 5.2 2.4 -3.6 18.8 22.2 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 5.0 5.0 5.7 -2.8 23.5 27.2 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 -2.0 -2.4 2.9 -3.3 21.0 24.4 -1.0 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 7.0 6.5 4.8 -3.4 21.4 25.1 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 6.8 6.5 3.7 -3.2 22.2 25.6 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 6.5 5.9 3.8 -3.7 18.6 21.6 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 6.3 5.6 3.4 -3.7 18.0 21.3 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 6.9 6.1 2.9 -3.8 17.2 20.5 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 6.6 6.9 5.4 -2.8 26.3 29.8 8.0 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 4.3 3.4 3.8 -3.7 17.8 20.4 6.4 9.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 7.1 6.3 3.3 -3.9 17.1 20.2 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 5.1 5.5 6.1 -2.1 29.7 32.7 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 6.8 6.8 3.4 -2.8 25.2 28.9 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 5.1 5.1 6.0 -3.0 23.4 27.2 6.7 9.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.2 1.4 -2.4 26.3 30.1 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 6.6 6.1 5.5 -3.4 21.2 25.1 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.7 6.3 6.4 -2.0 30.8 33.7 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 5.9 6.0 6.1 -3.0 24.1 27.9 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 7.1 7.0 4.9 -3.0 24.1 27.8 8.4 10.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 5.4 4.7 4.2 -3.3 20.3 23.6 6.8 9.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 7.0 6.1 2.9 -3.6 17.2 20.9 8.3 10.3 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 5.8 5.2 4.8 -3.4 19.9 23.4 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 4.8 3.5 3.6 -4.0 16.8 19.6 7.0 9.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 3.2 3.2 2.6 -2.6 26.3 29.9 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 5.1 4.9 5.7 -3.2 20.9 24.9 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------