***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 8.2 9.1 -1.1 38.1 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.1 9.1 9.4 -0.5 43.9 45.5 7.7 9.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.4 8.9 9.3 -1.0 39.3 42.8 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -1.0 -1.1 6.3 -2.4 26.3 31.6 -0.1 2.2 4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 7.0 7.4 6.9 -2.1 29.6 34.8 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 6.0 5.7 4.5 -2.6 25.5 30.8 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 6.7 8.8 9.2 -0.5 43.7 45.2 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -3.0 -2.3 5.4 -1.9 31.5 36.1 -2.1 0.0 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 7.0 8.3 8.0 -1.4 35.6 40.0 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 7.0 8.2 6.5 -1.6 34.0 38.4 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 6.8 7.3 6.6 -2.1 29.3 34.6 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 6.4 6.8 6.1 -2.2 28.5 33.8 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.2 5.3 -2.5 25.5 31.2 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.5 9.3 8.3 -1.0 39.8 42.9 8.3 10.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 6.0 6.2 6.6 -2.2 26.9 32.1 7.2 9.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 7.4 7.3 5.9 -2.5 25.6 31.3 8.4 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.9 9.3 9.3 -0.1 48.2 48.2 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 6.7 8.0 5.9 -1.4 35.8 39.7 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.9 8.9 9.5 -0.6 43.2 45.1 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.5 3.4 -1.4 35.0 38.9 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.3 8.6 8.7 -1.2 37.1 41.2 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.4 9.8 9.6 -0.2 48.2 48.3 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.6 9.4 9.5 -0.7 42.0 44.4 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 7.2 8.9 7.9 -1.2 37.9 41.5 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 6.6 7.8 7.4 -1.4 35.2 39.2 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 7.1 7.2 5.4 -2.2 27.3 33.1 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.9 8.3 8.2 -1.1 37.7 41.1 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 6.1 5.9 6.4 -2.6 24.8 30.4 7.3 9.9 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 2.1 3.3 4.8 -1.4 35.7 39.5 3.0 5.2 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 7.0 8.7 9.3 -0.7 41.6 44.0 7.5 9.8 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------