***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 10.9 10.9 -0.4 45.1 47.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.8 11.0 -0.2 47.4 49.7 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.8 11.1 -0.4 45.3 48.4 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 1.6 2.2 8.4 -1.4 35.0 39.5 2.0 4.1 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.9 8.9 -1.3 37.2 41.5 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 8.7 9.0 6.1 -2.0 31.0 35.1 9.2 11.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.4 11.5 10.8 -0.2 47.5 49.6 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.1 0.1 7.3 -1.2 37.8 42.0 -0.5 1.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.0 11.4 9.8 -0.7 42.8 46.3 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.9 11.0 8.3 -1.0 40.1 43.9 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.9 8.7 -1.2 38.4 42.4 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.0 8.2 -1.3 37.0 41.3 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.2 10.5 7.2 -1.8 32.7 37.1 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.0 9.9 -0.6 43.8 47.4 10.7 12.7 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 9.1 10.4 9.0 -0.9 39.9 43.7 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.1 7.9 -1.6 34.3 38.7 11.0 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.2 10.8 -0.1 49.3 51.0 9.6 11.3 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.9 7.5 -1.1 39.6 43.4 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.8 11.2 -0.3 47.0 49.5 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.9 4.7 -1.4 36.1 40.3 5.6 7.4 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.1 11.7 10.6 -0.6 44.0 47.2 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.2 11.1 -0.1 49.2 51.1 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.1 11.2 -0.4 46.1 49.1 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.2 11.7 9.6 -0.7 42.9 46.5 10.6 12.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.0 9.2 -0.7 42.3 45.6 9.9 11.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.4 7.2 -1.6 33.8 38.3 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.3 10.0 -0.5 44.4 47.2 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.1 8.6 -1.4 35.7 40.0 9.7 11.9 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 5.8 6.3 -1.2 38.3 42.4 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.5 11.1 -0.3 46.5 49.0 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------