***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 9999.0 6.6 7.2 -2.2 18.6 24.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 6.9 6.6 7.1 -2.0 22.2 26.7 7.8 9.5 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 7.3 6.8 7.4 -2.2 19.5 25.0 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 -0.6 -1.2 5.1 -2.6 17.0 21.1 0.9 2.7 4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 7.1 6.7 5.8 -2.4 18.4 23.0 8.5 10.2 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 6.4 6.0 4.0 -2.3 18.6 22.5 7.7 9.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 6.7 6.3 7.1 -1.9 22.6 27.1 7.5 9.2 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 -1.9 -2.0 4.6 -2.0 23.1 27.4 -1.1 0.2 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 7.6 7.5 6.6 -2.1 22.0 26.9 8.7 10.4 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 7.8 7.7 5.5 -1.9 23.7 28.1 8.7 10.4 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 7.4 7.0 5.6 -2.4 18.8 23.6 8.7 10.4 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 7.0 6.7 5.2 -2.3 19.0 23.8 8.2 9.8 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 7.7 7.2 4.8 -2.5 16.9 21.4 9.0 10.5 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 8.0 7.9 6.8 -1.8 24.8 29.5 8.9 10.6 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 5.9 5.3 5.5 -2.6 17.4 21.5 7.5 9.4 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 7.9 7.3 5.1 -2.6 16.5 21.1 9.3 10.8 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 6.7 6.9 7.3 -1.4 29.9 33.1 7.3 8.9 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 7.7 7.7 5.0 -1.7 26.7 30.8 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 6.7 6.4 7.3 -2.0 21.6 26.4 7.8 9.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.5 3.8 2.9 -1.3 29.7 32.8 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 7.4 7.3 7.2 -2.1 21.0 26.1 8.7 10.3 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 7.3 7.5 7.5 -1.4 30.1 33.4 7.9 9.6 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 7.2 7.1 7.5 -2.0 21.8 26.9 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 8.0 7.9 6.5 -1.9 24.0 28.9 8.8 10.4 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 6.8 6.5 6.0 -2.0 21.4 25.9 7.8 9.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 7.5 7.2 4.6 -2.3 17.9 22.6 8.7 10.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 7.1 6.7 6.5 -2.0 20.7 25.6 8.1 9.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 6.0 5.1 5.3 -2.8 15.3 19.6 7.8 9.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 3.6 3.7 4.1 -1.5 28.8 32.4 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 6.7 6.2 7.1 -2.2 19.4 24.5 7.7 9.4 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------