***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 32.8 38.2 85.6 46.8 42.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 15.7 22.4 37.2 85.2 46.5 42.0 16.2 24.1 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 23.1 32.7 39.9 88.4 47.9 43.0 22.9 34.1 47.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 26.3 34.8 43.5 86.5 45.5 42.0 28.2 37.3 47.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 25.9 35.0 46.0 90.8 48.4 43.4 26.9 35.8 45.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 19.4 25.3 47.5 86.9 42.8 41.3 20.3 29.3 40.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.7 21.8 36.7 85.1 46.8 42.2 16.4 23.2 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 49.1 62.1 54.6 96.6 52.7 47.1 50.1 60.3 71.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 36.6 34.3 49.4 98.4 54.9 47.6 23.4 31.8 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 29.5 42.3 54.8 99.3 55.1 48.0 29.7 39.3 49.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 23.0 33.7 46.5 94.7 51.6 46.1 22.8 32.8 44.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 24.1 35.2 47.3 95.4 52.1 47.4 24.2 33.8 45.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 25.1 32.7 47.9 89.4 46.2 43.9 25.7 34.8 45.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 31.8 43.9 52.0 92.3 49.2 44.7 31.7 44.7 59.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 15.3 22.8 37.6 83.1 44.5 41.5 15.1 27.1 43.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 24.5 31.2 45.4 89.9 46.9 43.9 24.8 32.8 41.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 16.1 21.9 35.9 84.9 47.1 42.8 16.3 23.1 31.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 24.8 37.1 61.0 98.2 53.7 47.1 25.6 34.9 45.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 19.0 26.2 38.4 86.4 47.0 42.5 19.4 27.8 37.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 25.8 35.5 71.4 93.3 49.7 45.3 25.7 35.9 47.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 37.2 32.7 44.2 93.9 52.2 45.9 21.7 31.4 42.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 28.7 22.9 37.6 84.9 46.8 43.0 17.0 24.3 32.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 17.5 24.1 41.6 89.2 48.2 43.6 17.6 25.0 33.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 29.4 42.4 51.1 94.0 50.4 44.6 30.0 42.1 56.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 20.5 27.5 44.8 85.6 45.0 41.7 21.0 30.3 41.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 21.8 28.9 48.7 89.6 47.4 44.7 22.4 30.1 38.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 18.4 25.0 42.2 85.3 45.9 42.2 19.0 27.0 36.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 17.2 25.4 40.9 86.6 45.7 42.5 18.3 28.1 40.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 42.1 58.6 65.7 96.1 51.6 46.2 43.2 57.2 72.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 17.9 24.5 37.3 84.9 46.0 41.6 18.5 26.6 36.1 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------