***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 5.1 7.9 66.6 46.9 40.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.9 4.4 7.8 69.4 49.3 43.0 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.4 6.5 8.8 71.9 48.8 42.9 3.4 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.1 5.7 8.8 63.4 44.4 40.6 3.7 6.9 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.0 5.0 9.3 66.8 45.4 41.3 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.2 3.9 7.8 56.0 35.8 33.1 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.5 7.5 68.3 48.5 42.2 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.5 12.8 12.7 80.1 51.3 47.4 8.0 12.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.3 11.7 83.5 53.3 48.7 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.1 12.9 84.8 54.0 49.8 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.4 10.3 75.4 49.8 45.6 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.5 8.4 11.0 78.2 50.4 46.4 4.5 8.3 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.3 5.9 9.3 64.3 41.8 38.5 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.2 12.6 82.0 53.8 49.1 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.4 7.4 56.7 41.7 37.6 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.4 5.1 8.9 63.8 42.9 39.4 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.7 4.8 7.3 67.1 49.3 43.7 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.8 7.0 14.2 84.1 54.4 50.5 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.8 8.5 72.6 50.4 44.3 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 11.1 9.2 15.6 75.2 49.8 46.9 5.1 9.2 14.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.8 5.6 9.8 74.4 49.6 44.5 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.8 5.4 7.9 67.8 49.6 44.3 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.6 9.8 77.5 52.2 46.4 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.2 11.9 79.8 52.8 48.1 4.0 7.5 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.2 8.2 60.0 42.1 36.8 2.7 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 5.3 9.9 65.1 42.1 38.7 3.9 6.8 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.8 8.5 67.2 46.7 40.3 2.8 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.3 8.1 61.0 42.7 39.0 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.3 12.5 15.0 80.9 52.6 49.3 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.7 4.4 7.9 69.4 48.6 42.2 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------