***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 8.3 10.2 91.3 57.1 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.3 7.8 9.5 79.0 51.6 42.0 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.4 10.5 91.6 56.8 46.9 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.4 12.0 97.6 60.2 50.8 4.3 7.7 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.9 10.7 12.7 102.2 61.6 51.3 4.7 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.0 10.1 15.6 117.0 67.9 56.4 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.9 7.2 9.5 80.4 51.8 42.1 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 18.1 15.3 109.2 64.5 53.0 7.7 12.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.7 13.2 106.1 63.1 52.4 4.0 6.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.2 15.0 110.5 65.0 53.9 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.7 12.7 104.8 62.5 51.2 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.2 13.4 108.1 64.2 52.7 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.4 9.9 14.7 109.9 64.9 55.0 4.3 6.9 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.7 14.0 98.4 59.8 50.9 5.7 10.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.4 10.1 93.2 59.5 50.0 3.4 7.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.3 13.4 107.5 63.7 53.2 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.4 7.2 9.2 77.3 51.2 41.3 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.0 17.3 111.9 65.6 55.1 4.6 7.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.7 8.4 9.8 81.2 52.8 43.3 4.6 7.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 12.2 20.8 105.8 63.1 53.3 5.3 8.8 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.7 11.8 101.8 61.9 51.4 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.8 8.1 9.8 77.4 51.9 42.5 4.8 7.7 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.8 10.9 88.4 55.9 46.6 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.8 14.0 103.7 62.0 52.0 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.1 12.4 94.6 58.5 49.2 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.0 14.9 108.6 64.8 54.5 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.8 11.5 90.9 56.6 47.1 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.7 11.4 100.5 61.7 51.5 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.2 16.5 18.8 109.4 64.6 54.2 7.0 11.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.1 8.1 9.6 81.6 52.7 43.2 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------